[NL2-NL10] NL5 FR T9s vs c/r on the flop

    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Known Players:
      MP2: $5.00 - 100 bb
      MP3: $2.05 - 41 bb
      CO: $9.18 - 184 bb
      BU: $12.15 - 243 bb
      SB: $3.94 - 79 bb
      BB: $4.45 - 89 bb

      0.02/0.05 No Limit Hold'em (6 Handed)
      Hand recorder for this hand: PokerStrategy.com SideKick 1.1.417.4

      Preflop: Hero is CO with T:diamond: , 9:diamond:
      SB posts small blind ($0.02), BB posts big blind ($0.05), 2 folds, Hero raises for $0.15, BU folds, SB calls, BB folds

      Flop: ($0.35 - 7 bb) J:diamond: , 7:heart: , 5:spade: (2 Players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.20, SB raises for $0.50, Hero folds, SB gets uncalled back ($0.30)

      -----

      SB was unknown.

      Preflop: steal.

      Flop: cbet. I wonder could I call his raise with a gutshot and backdoor FD?

      I need 28.57% and I think I would have good implied odds if I hit vs the below range:
      Board: Jd7h5s
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 22.07% 21.98% 0.09% { Td9d }
      MP3 77.93% 77.84% 0.09% { QQ-JJ, 77, 55, AJs, KJs, QJs, JTs, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo }
  • 1 reply
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      preflop: standard

      flop: sb seems likely to be a fish due to his stack size.
      cbet is good on this board and with such equity, but i don't think you can call the c/r, mostly because your implied odds suffer due to his broken stack and because his range is likely to be strong, so he is almost definitely also betting the turn (you won't get to see a free river).

      your range also seems a bit optimistic, he probably doesn't c/r the weaker tps (and most players don't c/r the stronger ones either) and, even if he does, he probably will not just stack off with them on many board runouts.

      that said, the stronger villain's range (and the deeper the stacks), the better your implied odds are...
      in this case, given stack depth and unknown villain (we don't really have much of an idea what his actual range is), this seems like a clear fold on the flop.