[NL20-NL50] SH25 ZOOM river valuebet spot vs likely fish

    • Tomaloc
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 7,013
      PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      Hero (BTN): 105.68 BB
      SB: 217.4 BB
      BB: 50 BB
      UTG: 100 BB
      MP: 106.96 BB
      CO: 102.52 BB

      SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J:spade: J:diamond:

      fold, MP calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 4.4 BB, SB calls 4 BB, fold, MP calls 3.4 BB

      Flop: (14.2 BB, 3 players) 4:club: 4:heart: 9:spade:
      SB checks, MP checks, Hero bets 7.6 BB, SB calls 7.6 BB, fold

      Turn: (29.4 BB, 2 players) 8:spade:
      SB checks, Hero bets 16 BB, SB calls 16 BB

      River: (61.4 BB, 2 players) 7:club:
      SB checks, Hero bets 31.08 BB, fold

      Hero wins 58.64 BB

      villain is playing 1 table.
      worse hand you valuebet? sizing? super obv bet/fold with anything less than A4?
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      I think u can 3barrel TT here if SB is a fish. Sizing size u can bet 2/3 pot on all 3 streets. Vs a raise I'm folding anything less than trips.

    • Tomaloc
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 7,013
      this is an isoraise pot so spr is a bit smaller.
      so are we stacking off by the river?

      if we bet 2/3 every street we'll have like a pot size bet on the river and i feel like this is slightly too weak to stack off.
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Well fishes love defending super wide in the blinds. He's gonna have a ton of A9/T9s/98s/97s combos which could call 3 barrels.

      I'm not sure whether he actually calls or not so the only thing we can do is to guess how wide his range is, and think about how many bluff catching combos we are ahead of and how many better value hands he can have.

      Better made hands
      44/77 (2 combos)
      99/88 (6 combos)
      Total: 8 combos

      Worse made hands
      TT (6 combos)
      A9 (12 combos)
      97s/98s (5 combos)
      T9s/J9s (5 combos)
      Total: 28 combos

      Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but perhaps he could even have stuff like K9s Q9s or some offsuit T9o J9o type of hands since fishes hate folding in the blinds.

      But I think you are significantly ahead here so it's probably fine to pot river