[NL2-NL10] NL5 FR TT 3bet for thin value

    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Known Players:
      UTG2: $5.00 - 100 bb
      UTG3: $1.86 - 37 bb
      MP1: $5.44 - 109 bb
      MP2: $4.10 - 82 bb
      MP3: $6.08 - 122 bb
      CO: $5.55 - 111 bb
      BU: $5.11 - 102 bb
      SB: $4.00 - 80 bb
      BB: $5.47 - 109 bb

      0.02/0.05 No Limit Hold'em (9 Handed)
      Hand recorder for this hand: PokerStrategy.com SideKick 1.1.417.4

      Preflop: Hero is BU with T:heart: , T:spade:
      SB posts small blind ($0.02), BB posts big blind ($0.05), 5 folds, CO raises for $0.15, Hero 3-bets $0.45, 2 folds, CO calls

      Flop: ($0.97 - 19.40 bb) Q:diamond: , 6:heart: , 6:club: (2 Players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $0.60, CO calls

      Turn: ($2.17 - 43.40 bb) Q:club: (2 Players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $1.20, CO raises for $4.50, Hero folds, CO gets uncalled back ($3.30)

      -----

      CO was 20/18/4 over 107 hands. Steal 37.5.

      Preflop: I 3bet for thin value.

      Flop: cbet for value/protection. He hesitated and called. I put him on AK/PPs as QQ+/AQ would have either shipped flop or called faster.

      Turn: cbet again for more value/protection as he's not folding an ace now. After he raises I'm often going to be behind as I don't expect him to bluff here with Ax.
  • 4 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Flop: QQ would usually 4b preflop given starting positions (you should discount this from his Flop range). If he had a full house I can assure you that 95% of players will call the Flop, so I think it is incorrect to remove QQ from his Flop calling range. It's not that he would checkraise it, cos I think that will happen really rarely, but you should discount that cos of the preflop action.

      I also think that majority of players would c/c AQ here on Q66r instead of c/r.

      Should we even bet the Flop in the first place? I think that QXX flops tend to help the caller's range more, cos he would usually defend KQs/AQ/QJs/QTs. I don't mind checking, but betting is also fine. With air hands like AK I would be more inclined to give up cos he is unlikely to fold pocket pairs like 88.

      Turn: I don't like the Turn bet. Just check Turn and call River, or bet River. You get the same amount of value and you assure yourself the chance of getting to the showdown. As I said, QX will be a huge part of his PF range so I really doubt you have value in a Turn bet.

      Small Exercise for you: Calculate your Turn equity with TT vs a typical calling range. This guy's stats seem pretty loose for FR standards so I think you can add more suited broadway type of hands.
    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Hi mbml

      Thanks for the evaluation!

      I agree that QQ wouldn't c/r flop but rather call it faster :f_biggrin:

      It's interesting how I thought that I should bet all my air hands on this flop as I believed that PPs are definitely folding this flop :f_mad:

      My answer to your exercise:
      Assuming quite an optimistic range of calling 3bet and c/c the flop I have 47.71% of equity.
      Board: Qd6h6cQc
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 47.71% 45.35% 2.36% { TT }
      MP3 52.29% 49.94% 2.36% { JJ-77, ATs+, KQs, QTs+, AQo, KQo }

      If the range would be tighter (less suited aces calling flop) I have 36.36% equity.
      Board: Qd6h6cQc
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 36.36% 33.98% 2.38% { TT }
      MP3 63.64% 61.26% 2.38% { JJ-88, AQs+, KQs, QTs+, AQo, KQo }

      If I remove AK and 99/88 then I'm really behind:
      Board: Qd6h6cQc
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 3.50% 1.05% 2.45% { TT }
      MP3 96.50% 94.06% 2.45% { JJ-TT, AQs, KQs, QTs+, AQo, KQo }

      So all my equity comes from him calling worse PPs and missed aces :f_eek:

      Thanks for the exercise!
      Dawidas
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      yep. so even when you are being so optimistic, you don't even have >50% equity which means that you cannot value bet here, so checking is clearly the better option.
    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Jeez, it hurts my eyes seeing so many leaks! :f_o: