[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH AJ TP 3bet pot

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,059
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($5.96)
      Hero ($20.05)
      UTG ($5.56)
      UTG+1 ($20)
      CO ($32.12)
      BTN ($24.80)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: J:heart:

      fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.40, SB calls $0.30, Hero raises to $1.60, BTN calls $1.20, fold

      FLOP ($3.60) 9:diamond: 4:diamond: J:spade:

      Hero bets $1.80, BTN calls $1.80

      TURN ($7.20) 9:diamond: 4:diamond: J:spade: 6:club:

      Hero checks, BTN bets $3.80, Hero calls $3.80

      RIVER ($14.80) 9:diamond: 4:diamond: J:spade: 6:club: 2:spade:

      Hero checks, BTN bets $17.60 (AI), Hero folds

      BTN wins $14.06



      Turn c/c to incuce some bluffs. Weaker Jx also mieght bet there.

      On river there are busted draws, but I don't think that he is agro enoguth to bluff often
  • 7 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Hey SpeedFanatic,

      Your opponent so far folded to a lot of cbets, when he calls he will have a good hand so you should continue value betting your TPTK. Apart from that, I think you bet too small on the flop.. What was your reasoning for it?
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,059
      Your opponent so far folded to a lot of cbets, when he calls he will have a good hand so you should continue value betting your TPTK.


      He might still have a draw which he might think is too expensive to call on turn. Or he migth have 44, 99, JJ, so I want to not just donate money for them, but also get value from other hands.

      Apart from that, I think you bet too small on the flop.. What was your reasoning for it?


      If I bet big, then he will really not float just continue with made hands.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      You don't have to bet much bigger but closer to 2/3 pot, not to 1/2 pot.

      Anyway, as played, I think you can consider check/shove turn since draws get good odds and Jx also feels kind of commited. When you just call turn and get that river shove it's probably close and I really dislike folding TPTK in 3bet pot when turned into a bluffcatcher and board blanks out but in this case, given your whole line it's probably the better play. The point is though, that your line overall is not the best, at least in my opinion. When you know your opponent calls a strong range, just value bet your value hand. He can have draws but you don't get more value from them unless you bet or check/shove turn. Given your idea of him possibly bluffing more you shouldprobably call river but in practice he is not bluffing enough.

      As an idea, you don't want to start bluffcatching when people don't have many bluffs.. continue with value betting.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,059
      I was just thinking that my hand is not as strong for valuebetting. I mean its big pot, and its just a top pair. So I felt like I might isolate myself against better hands.

      But probably I should agree that there might be some worse Jx which call turn and darws not giving up.

      But also FD can raise the turn. Probably I would need to call a raise, because only he would rep a draw by raising turn. Anything that is strong, would raise ight on flop becasue there is draws. Is that true?
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      I think most strong hands are tempted to raise that flop, that doesn't mean they 100% do it though. It only means that when he calls you can discount a certain percentage of very strong hands, which is another reason why your hand gets stronger vs his range.
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      I'm working on my hand reading skills so I did some for this hand, please let me know what you think.

      Preflop:
      BU steals 50% so far so can assume he has a wide range that our hand does well against so 3bet for value. His fold to 3bet is 67% which has a small sample but if we assume it gives us a direction then he probably calls roughly 15% range there 0.50*.33.

      So I give his preflop range here as QQ-77,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+

      Don't have sample on 4bet% so I remove AA,KK only assume he'll call the rest.

      Flop:

      His fold to Cbet is high, he hasn't raised a lot to cbets and his agg freq is ok, not too high so I expect him to call with strong draws and raise sets.

      We enter the flop with

      Board: 9:diamond: 4:diamond: J:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      BU     27.95%  25.75%   2.20% { QQ-77, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+ }
      BB     72.05%  69.86%   2.20% { AdJh }


      so easy Cbet for value.

      After he calls I modify his range to QQ,TT,JdJh,JdJs,JdJc,AJs,KJs,QTs+,JTs,AhKh,AsKs,AhQh,AsQs,KdQd,KdTd,AJo,KJo,QTo+,AhKd,AsKd,AcKd,AhQd,AsQd,AcQd,KdQh,KdQs,KdQc,KdTh,KdTs,KdTc

      I basically assume he continues only with OESD, FD, TP, a few JJ sets (he'll normally raise sets), Gutshot+BDFD with K and floats some broadways with BDFD, gave him ver few of those.

      He entered flop with 136 combos and on the flop he folds 65 combos, so he's folding close to 50%. Given his normal fold to cbet of 75% and fold to cbet in 3bet pots of 50% its possible he might continue with this range.

      Turn
      We enter the turn with


      Board: 9:diamond: 4:diamond: J:spade:  6:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      BU     25.42%  21.19%   4.23% { QQ, TT, JdJh, JdJs, JdJc, AJs, KJs, QTs+, JTs, AhKh, AsKs, AhQh, AsQs, KdQd, KdTd, AJo, KJo, QTo+, AhKd, AsKd, AcKd, AhQd, AsQd, AcQd, KdQh, KdQs, KdQc, KdTh, KdTs, KdTc }
      BB     74.58%  70.36%   4.23% { AdJh }


      A must cbet IMO. We'll still get value from all FD, OESD, weak top pairs etc.

      When we check and he bets I remove some hands he doesn't bets with and I get nothing. Think he bets his entire range, semi bluffing draw, bluffing those few floats I gave him and value betting some pairs few pairs have some draws too.

      We are still ahead of his range and should definitely call.

      River

      Enter river with

      Board: 9:diamond: 4:diamond: J:spade:  6:club:  2:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      BU     14.08%   9.86%   4.23% { QQ, TT, JdJh, JdJs, JdJc, AJs, KJs, QTs+, JTs, AhKh, AsKs, AhQh, AsQs, KdQd, KdTd, AJo, KJo, QTo+, AhKd, AsKd, AcKd, AhQd, AsQd, AcQd, KdQh, KdQs, KdQc, KdTh, KdTs, KdTc }
      BB     85.92%  81.69%   4.23% { AdJh }


      and he shoves.

      From his stats, he's not too aggressive so maybe not many bluffs in his range but when I look at his WTSD and W$SD I see he goes a lot to showdown and loses a lot of them, 35% and 29% respectively, ,meaning he's not that strong on showdowns.

      From his range I'll remove some showdown value hands that won't shove so I get


      Board: 9:diamond: 4:diamond: J:spade:  6:club:  2:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      BU     23.26%  16.28%   6.98% { QQ, JdJh, JdJs, JdJc, AJs, QTs, AhKh, AsKs, AhQh, AsQs, KdQd, AJo, QTo, AhKd, AsKd, AcKd, AhQd, AsQd, AcQd, KdQh, KdQs, KdQc }
      BB     76.74%  69.77%   6.98% { AdJh }



      This range has very few sets, QQ and missed draws. His range that entered the river itself wasn't too strong and after this river I think he can't have many strong hands.

      I think its a river call.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      His range that entered the river itself wasn't too strong and after this river I think he can't have many strong hands.


      This is a good summary and conclusion to all that huge analysis. Basically, this is what you should know each step at the tables, based on teh previous one and the board texture.

      Your analysis is good Maheep, I didn't check ranges very closely, I would usually add some hands like 78s-T9s as well because people do play them IP quite a bit but our overall equity doesn't change that much to be decisive here.

      Keep practicing like this and after a few more trials you will find it very easy to estimate ranges in very common spots.