[NL2-NL10] NL5 FR 98s FE question

    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Known Players:
      UTG2: $1.75 - 35 bb
      UTG3: $5.38 - 108 bb
      MP1: $4.76 - 95 bb
      MP2: $5.00 - 100 bb
      MP3: $1.97 - 39 bb
      CO: $8.12 - 162 bb
      BU: $5.08 - 102 bb
      SB: $2.68 - 54 bb
      BB: $12.50 - 250 bb

      0.02/0.05 No Limit Hold'em (9 Handed)
      Hand recorder for this hand: PokerStrategy.com SideKick 1.1.417.4

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 9:club: , 8:club:
      SB posts small blind ($0.02), BB posts big blind ($0.05), 5 folds, Hero raises for $0.15, 2 folds, BB calls

      Flop: ($0.32 - 6.40 bb) 6:diamond: , 4:spade: , 4:diamond: (2 Players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.20, BB calls

      Turn: ($0.72 - 14.40 bb) 3:heart: (2 Players)
      BB checks, Hero checks

      River: ($0.72 - 14.40 bb) 2:diamond: (2 Players)
      BB bets $0.45, Hero folds, BB gets uncalled back ($0.45)

      -----

      CO was unknown (50/25/0 over 12).

      Preflop: steal.

      Flop: I wonder if this is the board where I should just give up or do I have enough FE with a cbet.

      Basically the question is should I assume that he folds 40% of his range on this board?
      I have very low equity and no backdoors so otherwise it's unprofitable.

      Board: 6d4s4d
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 21.27% 20.36% 0.91% { 9c8c }
      MP3 78.73% 77.81% 0.91% { JJ-22, AJs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo-ATo, KQo }

      I'm cbetting in 95% of the spots right now, so I believe I need to reduce this a bit :)
  • 3 replies
    • CPallo
      CPallo
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.04.2012 Posts: 4,343
      I'd give up flop or go for 2 barrels. You are not representing a thing on flop and you don't have even back-door equity, so I'd tend to fold here. Co seems a bit fishy, too, so I guess he is not folding that many overpairs, even on 2nd barrel.
    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Yep, that's what I thought! Thanks!
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      I think your play is fine. Nice hand.

      Unless you know that villain is never folding anything here and will always float overcards on this low paired flop, I see no reason not to bet here. Sure we are probably not folding any pairs or Ace highs, but I Think he should be folding stuff like T9.