This site uses cookies to improve your browsing experience. By continuing to browse the website, you accept such cookies. For more details and to change your settings, see our Cookie Policy and Privacy Policy. Close

[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH - 88: facing squeeze

    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,136
      MP: 31/21
      2% limp
      55% fold vs 3bet
      3.1k hands

      BU: 26/23
      13% 3bet and squeeze
      11% squeeze BU (81)
      52% fold vs 4bet
      14k hands

      SB: 30/14
      BB reg 9% squeeze

      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP: $49.04 (98.1 bb)
      Hero (CO): $50 (100 bb)
      BTN: $57.27 (114.5 bb)
      SB: $19.75 (39.5 bb)
      BB: $50.75 (101.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 8 8
      MP raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, BTN raises to $6.15, 3 folds, Hero raises to $50 and is all-in, BTN calls $43.85

      Flop: ($102.25) 5 9 5 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      Turn: ($102.25) 4 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      River: ($102.25) 7 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      Results:
      $102.25 pot ($2.50 rake)
      Final Board: 5 9 5 4 7
      Hero showed 8 8 and won $99.75 ($49.75 net)
      BTN showed A K and lost (-$50 net)
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Hi,

      This is purely a math spot. If villain is really squeezing 9%+ in this exact situation, I think 88 is good enough to shove here. But it also depends on whether his value range is JJ+/AK or TT+/AQ+.

      You can try figuring out the spot yourself with some high school algebra

      A. If villain folds, you win $9.90. Let X represent your required fold equity to breakeven

      B. If vilain calls, you are risking $48.50 more. On average you get back Equity% X total pot, and you lose 48.50 - (Equity X Total Pot) on average. Let this number be y

      9.90 X = (1-X) Y
      Solve for X
      Give villain a value range of TT+/AQ+ (4.7%), 99+/AQ+ (5%) or JJ+/AK (3%)
      Find out how wide villain's 3b range must be for your push to be breakeven.
    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,136
      I like that kind of stuff, i dont know if was in one of your vids that i saw this stuff discussed.
      I worked a lot on some tables.
      Im my table for this sizes if he calls with JJ/AK+ i need him to squeeze 11.1%+, if he calls with AQ/TT+ i need him to squeeze 14.1%+ for me to shove 22+ +ev. I thought i was a cold spot for me, so i posted to get some opinions.
      I did shove....he insta calls AKo....ship the moneyz :tongue:
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      I can't really rmb the calculations, I think with AQ you need around 9-10% range for this backraise to be profitable. But AQ often plays better with a call.

      Mid pairs tend to play worse but have higher preflop all-in equity so backraising may be better. TT needs a 8%+ range if i recall correctly, and 88 probably requires 9-10% range as well to ship.