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[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH - 88: facing squeeze

    • Lunitis
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,136
      MP: 31/21
      2% limp
      55% fold vs 3bet
      3.1k hands

      BU: 26/23
      13% 3bet and squeeze
      11% squeeze BU (81)
      52% fold vs 4bet
      14k hands

      SB: 30/14
      BB reg 9% squeeze

      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP: $49.04 (98.1 bb)
      Hero (CO): $50 (100 bb)
      BTN: $57.27 (114.5 bb)
      SB: $19.75 (39.5 bb)
      BB: $50.75 (101.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 8 8
      MP raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, BTN raises to $6.15, 3 folds, Hero raises to $50 and is all-in, BTN calls $43.85

      Flop: ($102.25) 5 9 5 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      Turn: ($102.25) 4 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      River: ($102.25) 7 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      $102.25 pot ($2.50 rake)
      Final Board: 5 9 5 4 7
      Hero showed 8 8 and won $99.75 ($49.75 net)
      BTN showed A K and lost (-$50 net)
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      This is purely a math spot. If villain is really squeezing 9%+ in this exact situation, I think 88 is good enough to shove here. But it also depends on whether his value range is JJ+/AK or TT+/AQ+.

      You can try figuring out the spot yourself with some high school algebra

      A. If villain folds, you win $9.90. Let X represent your required fold equity to breakeven

      B. If vilain calls, you are risking $48.50 more. On average you get back Equity% X total pot, and you lose 48.50 - (Equity X Total Pot) on average. Let this number be y

      9.90 X = (1-X) Y
      Solve for X
      Give villain a value range of TT+/AQ+ (4.7%), 99+/AQ+ (5%) or JJ+/AK (3%)
      Find out how wide villain's 3b range must be for your push to be breakeven.
    • Lunitis
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,136
      I like that kind of stuff, i dont know if was in one of your vids that i saw this stuff discussed.
      I worked a lot on some tables.
      Im my table for this sizes if he calls with JJ/AK+ i need him to squeeze 11.1%+, if he calls with AQ/TT+ i need him to squeeze 14.1%+ for me to shove 22+ +ev. I thought i was a cold spot for me, so i posted to get some opinions.
      I did shove....he insta calls AKo....ship the moneyz :tongue:
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      I can't really rmb the calculations, I think with AQ you need around 9-10% range for this backraise to be profitable. But AQ often plays better with a call.

      Mid pairs tend to play worse but have higher preflop all-in equity so backraising may be better. TT needs a 8%+ range if i recall correctly, and 88 probably requires 9-10% range as well to ship.