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[NL20-NL50] T8s

    • zumpar
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 1,185
      villain is 20/16/5 ft3b:87, AF:1.83. ftcb:1/6, wtsd:19

      over 234 hands

      on the river i feel like i have the best hand always (aside from 2 AKss/AQss combos he might float flop with - his ftcb is just 1/6 so i guess its kinda likely)

      so i think im stacking off here all the time, whats the best river sizing to get calls from JJ/QQ + raises from busted FD's - if he doesnt donk them otr himself..?

      i think i should have bet more, like $19.99 vs his most likely range of JJ/QQ/maybe some TJs, repping air/busted FD's

      can i just overjam it?

      iPoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BB: $69.72 (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
      UTG: $28.98 (VPIP: 23.91, PFR: 5.11, 3Bet Preflop: 1.72, Hands: 140)
      MP: $59.30 (VPIP: 20.27, PFR: 16.22, 3Bet Preflop: 5.21, Hands: 234)
      Hero (CO): $73.59
      BTN: $22.93 (VPIP: 20.35, PFR: 17.11, 3Bet Preflop: 3.01, Hands: 349)
      SB: $50.00 (VPIP: 23.64, PFR: 20.31, 3Bet Preflop: 10.96, Hands: 391)

      SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has T:club: 8:club:

      fold, MP raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $4.50, fold, fold, fold, MP calls $3.00

      Flop: ($9.75, 2 players) 3:heart: T:heart: 6:spade:
      MP checks, Hero bets $7.00, MP calls $7.00

      Turn: ($23.75, 2 players) 5:spade:
      MP checks, Hero checks

      River: ($23.75, 2 players) 8:spade:
      MP checks, Hero bets $16.50, MP calls $16.50

      MP shows J:club: J:spade: (One Pair, Jacks) (Pre 82%, Flop 80%, Turn 89%)
      Hero shows T:club: 8:club: (Two Pair, Tens and Eights) (Pre 18%, Flop 20%, Turn 11%)
      Hero wins $53.92
  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909

      I think he has a bluffctacher like 90% of the time.

      After you check the turn, he prob leads bluffs and value hands and only checks mediocre hands.

      Now, those mediocre hands are usually face up and plan on calling when no very obv good card for your range hits so it's a question of how happy he would be to call a lot more, so close to potsize. If he hand reads, he prob thinks you vbet most overpairs on turn so you rep to have hit the river without a turn barrel which is 86s and T8s from your pre range, maybe 88 sometimes. Not that many combos so you rep thin and can consider bombing it vs his bluffctach heavy range.

      There's also the psychological impact of his hand that he planned to bluffcatch with it so will feel commited to go ahead with his plan regardless of sizing. Depending on how spewy your image is, it's probably a good spot to overbet for value. He is capped, has a bluffcatcher and you rep narrow.