[NL20-NL50] [Sh] Nl25 66

    • dannywratten
      dannywratten
      Gold
      Joined: 11.05.2010 Posts: 1,462
      Hey, CO unknown, BB 26/19/1.7/10/24/202
      overall squeeze 18.4%

      Not a super big sample on BB, but he does 3b from the blinds a lot & is very squeeze happy.
      So knowing that, I would sometimes flat hands like JJ,TT maybe even QQ or AK planning to back raise.

      Question is, if hes squeezing way too light & we are back shoving JJ/TT, does it make sense to do it with lower PP also as a bluff, since we would have similar equity vs a calling range of QQ+ AK?

      I think I have a lot of FE but just happened to run into a value hand. Obv wouldn't do this often vs him since its easy to exploit.


      Hero (BTN): $54.55 (218.2 bb)
      SB: $26.22 (104.9 bb)
      BB: $23.07 (92.3 bb)
      UTG: $16.55 (66.2 bb)
      MP: $24.40 (97.6 bb)
      CO: $35.96 (143.8 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with 6 6
      2 folds, CO raises to $0.70, Hero calls $0.70, SB folds, BB raises to $3.70, CO folds, Hero raises to $54.55, BB calls $19.37 and is all-in

      Flop: ($46.94) 9 4 7 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      Turn: ($46.94) J (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      River: ($46.94) 5 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      Results:
      $46.94 pot ($2 rake)
      Final Board: 9 4 7 J 5
      Hero showed 6 6 and won $44.94 ($21.87 net)
      BB showed A K and lost (-$23.07 net)
  • 11 replies
    • pokerferrer
      pokerferrer
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.03.2008 Posts: 6,347
      I think it is awful. Much better to even call his squeeze in position and play carefully postflop vs his wide range. Shoving is just so polarized which means he can call you easy with somethings like 99+. I am pretty sure it is just a huge -EV on distance, disciplined play gives much more profit.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      His squeeze % is going to be highly inaccurate due to sample. Is the 10% his overall 3bet %? If so, I think your play is probably fine.

      I don't think he is necessarily going to squeeze 88-TT, so if that's the case, 22~=88 as you mentioned.

      I don't have the calculations with me, but I think if villain is squeezing 10%+ and his value range is TT+/AQ+, backraise jamming here is probably +EV
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Originally posted by pokerferrer
      I think it is awful. Much better to even call his squeeze in position and play carefully postflop vs his wide range. Shoving is just so polarized which means he can call you easy with somethings like 99+. I am pretty sure it is just a huge -EV on distance, disciplined play gives much more profit.
      even 88/99 plays poorly in 3b pots, let alone 66. As much as possible if you can play a low pocket pair for stacks preflop, you should do it. Flatting may only be more +EV if...
      1. Stacks are deep - Can set-mine
      2. Opponent is straightforward and you can showdown your pair a lot
    • pokerferrer
      pokerferrer
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.03.2008 Posts: 6,347
      Yes, for me it is just standart fold preflop, but as I mentioned option of just calling is much better then shoving.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      If his range is >10% here
      Shoving > folding > calling.

      Shoving is good to make him think twice before squeezing so often. Folding is the neutral ev option and calling just puts u in a tough spot.
    • pokerferrer
      pokerferrer
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.03.2008 Posts: 6,347
      If he calls you with pretty tight range of 4.4% and his squeeze is 10%:
      Hand 0: 71.154% 70.92% 00.23% 422592912 1398048.00 { 88+, AKs, AKo }
      Hand 1: 28.846% 28.61% 00.23% 170492784 1398048.00 { 66 }

      POT = 44.593 (after rake)
      You lose: 23.07 - 0.7 - 44.593 * 0.288 = 22.37 - 12.84= 9.53&

      If he folds you win pot 0.7 + 0.1 + 0.7 + 3.70 = 5.2$

      5.2 * 5.6/10 - 9.53 * 4.4/10 = 2.912 - 4.193 = -1.281$ - for just shoving here vs squeeze. -5bb per hand = -500bb per 100.

      Goodluck.
    • dannywratten
      dannywratten
      Gold
      Joined: 11.05.2010 Posts: 1,462
      Hey guys, thanks for the help :)

      Yeh his overall 3b is 10%.

      Not a play i would make often, but he was super out of line imo.
      Agree that hes prob not squeezing those mid PP, but more likely broadways & going broke smth like JJ+ AK. So i figure i have plenty of FE.

      Also I didn't even consider calling the squeeze while hes not even 100bb deep. If i flop a set I don't think get paid often enough since his range is wide & he would need to stack off too light.
    • dannywratten
      dannywratten
      Gold
      Joined: 11.05.2010 Posts: 1,462
      Do you think he squeezes 88+ though? We don't have much of a history of spewing vs each other. Just see him squeeze a ton
    • pokerferrer
      pokerferrer
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.03.2008 Posts: 6,347
      dannywratten, what is the difference for you between 22 and 66 in a such spot? You just can't push profitably such pairs: 1) It is polarize. 2) They are too weak.
      And I didn't propose to play 66 for set value, you just will be in a better spot just calling it in position instead of makeing -EV pushes. And this is not a dinamic situation, agreesive players will not call 88 out of position in a 3 way against regulars.
    • dannywratten
      dannywratten
      Gold
      Joined: 11.05.2010 Posts: 1,462
      Yes i understand there's no difference between 22-66, also like theres no difference between TT-66 if hes only calling QQ+ AK.
      I know its polarized, but I think its also kinda capped when I flat the squeeze & he can play well vs me. The shove is mostly to stop him squeezing v light, so i chose a hand like 66 since I would be in the same shape vs his calling range with TT.

      So yeh i'd ship 22 vs that same range since my equity wouldn't really change & i am doing it because of the massive amount of FE :)

      Ofc i will change my range vs him now because he will be expecting mid PP when I backshove.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Standard sqz push ranges are either 99+/AQ+ or TT+/AQ+ or JJ+/AK. Redo the calculations and i think it would be +ev. Aq plays so much better in a 3b pot and 88 plays so much better in a singleraised pot. It doesnt make any sense to squeeze 88 and flat AQ.

      Once you change these assumptions you'll find that 66 now has way more equity.