[NL2-NL10] NL5 FR 85s I no let steal my blind!

    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Known Players:
      UTG3: $5.39 - 108 bb
      MP1: $5.00 - 100 bb
      MP2: $5.00 - 100 bb
      MP3: $3.09 - 62 bb
      CO: $9.76 - 195 bb
      BU: $5.32 - 106 bb
      SB: $5.02 - 100 bb
      BB: $5.29 - 106 bb

      0.02/0.05 No Limit Hold'em (8 Handed)
      Hand recorder for this hand: PokerStrategy.com SideKick 1.1.417.4

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 8:diamond: , 5:diamond:
      SB posts small blind ($0.02), Hero posts big blind ($0.05), 6 folds, SB raises for $0.08, Hero calls

      Flop: ($0.20 - 4 bb) 9:diamond: , 7:spade: , 2:club: (2 Players)
      SB bets $0.10, Hero calls

      Turn: ($0.40 - 8 bb) 8:heart: (2 Players)
      SB bets $0.30, Hero calls

      River: ($1.00 - 20 bb) 5:heart: (2 Players)
      SB bets $0.75, Hero folds, SB gets uncalled back ($0.75)

      -----

      SB was 15/11/4 over 760 with 34.7 steal.

      Preflop: I no let steal my blind cheap!

      Flop: got a gutshot + BD flush = good enough to float.

      Turn: his sizing makes me worried as regs usually up their sizing when they hit (and this guys a reg). However, he could've picked up a SD and barrel it again. I also improve so no fold.

      River: his sizing makes me cry, he is not worried of 4 to a straight so it's likely he has a better straight and my 2pair is no good...
  • 4 replies
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,297
      Hey Dawidas888,

      Preflop defend is fine vs a min-raise.

      You should never fold the flop. But you aren't calling purely because you have a gutshot - you are also calling because the board is dry and villain may c/f a lot of turns.

      8 gives you a pair but not necessarily a good card for you. If you do hit your gutshot you will now have the bottom end of a 4-to-straight. Your 5 out is tainted, and likely also your 8. Even if you do hit and have the best hand, you won't get paid. Not having the direct odds you need + reverse implieds means I prefer folding turn.
    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Hi w34z3l

      As I understand, the 2 arguments for folding are:
      #1 Our reverse implied odds.
      #2 Not having direct odds to call.

      Re #1 I agree, but regarding #2 - we are losing only to completed straights / 9x (9x being unlikely given his sizing on the flop). So basically we lose to JT or T6 only. And if he continues on river it's easy fold but usually I'd expect him to check on a blank.

      Do you still think that folding is better than calling? And we need only roughly 30% equity to break-even.
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,297
      Originally posted by Dawidas888
      Re #1 I agree, but regarding #2 - we are losing only to completed straights / 9x (9x being unlikely given his sizing on the flop). So basically we lose to JT or T6 only. And if he continues on river it's easy fold but usually I'd expect him to check on a blank.
      I don't think we should discount 9x from his range. It's a perfectly reasonable sizing for 9x on this texture. Also there are two-pair combos and maybe occasionally better 8s like T8. Potentially even overpairs.

      Even if we only lose to made straights, I don't see too many villains barelling worse here. Usually it's better to give someone credit for having the stronger part of their range when they double barrel unless you have reads.

      The other thing to mention is - even if our hand is good we are not guaranteed to see a showdown which affects the odds we are technically getting.

      But let's say you are correct and the total equity of our hand is larger than 30%. Any 5/8/6 river is going to give us a lot of trouble. We are dominated on all three rivers which improve us. This means the small amount we do make by calling is going to be cancelled out (and more) by what we can potentially lose with our river reverse implieds.
    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      I see! Thanks for the explanation. It's one of those spots where the best play is not clear straight away :)