[NL2-NL10] Nl10 44

    • tommygecko
      tommygecko
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.08.2012 Posts: 1,229
      IPoker, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BB: $6.61 (66.1 bb)
      UTG: $4.65 (46.5 bb)
      MP: $15.25 (152.5 bb)
      Hero (CO): $10.05 (100.5 bb)
      BTN: $12.68 (126.8 bb)
      SB: $5.97 (59.7 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 4 4
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, BB calls $0.20

      Flop: ($0.65) J Q K (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero checks

      Turn: ($0.65) 4 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.50, BB raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $9.75 and is all-in, BB calls $4.81

      River: ($13.27) J (2 players, 1 is all-in)



      Villain is 16/14/4.4 over 95 hands. 11/6 from BB. No postflop reads.

      On the turn what range can we put villain on? I'm expecting all Kx, twopairs and sets to lead out on the turn for value and protection. I'm putting him on AT, T9, some draws and air. I think shoving vs a short stack like in this case is fine, he might be slowplaying two pairs and sets because he is short. But against a reg/100bb stack I don't expect him to have two pairs and sets in his range when he takes this line.

      Vs 100bb stack I'm calling turn and calling non club rivers/shove if I improve.
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Tommy,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: I think we can cbet this flop just to take it down from the opponent.

      Given he is a shortstack I don't mind your plan and I agree with your play versus a full stack. However I can see this shorter guy having at most JJ when it comes to better sets but he can also have some rare T9.
    • tommygecko
      tommygecko
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.08.2012 Posts: 1,229
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Postflop: I think we can cbet this flop just to take it down from the opponent.
      I don't think it is profitable in this hand. He has to call lots of low connectors for us to have enough fold equity.

      JJ-TT, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AQo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo are 160 combos in total which I think would not fold to my cbet. Villain seems like a tight player and this flop hits his range very well so I believe we have very little fold equity. We could fold 55-99 but that is only 36 combos.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by tommygecko
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Postflop: I think we can cbet this flop just to take it down from the opponent.
      I don't think it is profitable in this hand. He has to call lots of low connectors for us to have enough fold equity.

      JJ-TT, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AQo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo are 160 combos in total which I think would not fold to my cbet. Villain seems like a tight player and this flop hits his range very well so I believe we have very little fold equity. We could fold 55-99 but that is only 36 combos.
      Why would a 16/14 call us with so many offsuite broadway type hands?

      If you give him such a wide range for calling then you can include some other connectors as well.

      Generally speaking a cbet of about 40c is enough here which needs to work about 38% of the time.