[NL2-NL10] Any reason to fold?

    • Edukator99
      Joined: 18.07.2010 Posts: 240
      PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: 71.5 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
      SB: 71 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
      BB: 50 BB (VPIP: 6.45, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 32)
      Hero (UTG): 361 BB
      UTG+1: 84 BB (VPIP: 21.88, PFR: 15.63, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 32)
      UTG+2: 55.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
      MP: 73 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
      MP+1: 113 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
      CO: 121 BB (VPIP: 14.43, PFR: 11.46, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 98)

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8:diamond: 8:spade:

      Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, MP calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold

      Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 5:diamond: 6:spade: 4:spade:
      Hero bets 5 BB, MP calls 5 BB

      Turn: (17.5 BB, 2 players) 8:heart:
      Hero bets 10 BB, MP raises to 65 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 55 BB

      I agonized here. Only thing that beats me is a guy with a 7 in his hand for some reason as far as I can tell. Couldn't see folding here. Is this call correct?
  • 2 replies
    • redrawstump
      Joined: 09.05.2012 Posts: 244
      Usually they min raise the nuts here. Might be a scared lower set that doesn't want to see another spade. Might be a FD. Might be 72o, it's a short stack on NL2 after all. I think there's enough hands you beat that take the same line to justify a call. Plus you have a redraw to the top FH so that's still a big slice of equity...
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Edukator,

      RedRawStump summed it up well but I would also recommend betting larger on both the flop and turn.

      As played I think that calling is ok and our play is -EV only if he shoves 7x and nothing else. However, most fish min raise here the nuts so his shove looks a bit more polarized, including more semibluffs/bluffs especially given our "smaller/scared" bet.