[NL2-NL10] NL5 FR A3s failed squeeze shipped it

    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Known Players:
      UTG2: $3.39 - 68 bb
      UTG3: $1.78 - 36 bb
      MP1: $1.62 - 32 bb
      MP2: $5.55 - 111 bb
      MP3: $5.56 - 111 bb
      CO: $12.50 - 250 bb
      BU: $1.95 - 39 bb
      SB: $6.71 - 134 bb
      BB: $7.22 - 144 bb

      0.02/0.05 No Limit Hold'em (9 Handed)
      Hand recorder for this hand: PokerStrategy.com SideKick 1.1.417.4

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A:diamond: , 3:diamond:
      SB posts small blind ($0.02), Hero posts big blind ($0.05), 6 folds, BU raises for $0.15, SB calls, Hero 3-bets $0.55, BU calls, SB folds

      Flop: ($1.35 - 27 bb) K:diamond: , J:spade: , 8:spade: (2 Players)
      Hero bets $6.62, BU calls, Hero gets uncalled back ($5.27)

      Turn: ($4.05 - 81 bb) 7:heart: (2 Players)

      River: ($4.05 - 81 bb) 4:heart: (2 Players)

      -----

      BU was 25/14/5 over 63 with 44 steal.

      Preflop: nice spot to squeeze vs wide BU steal range and weaker SB calling range.

      Flop: when I am called by BU I put him on AQ-AT, KT+, QT+, 88-JJ.
      Pot was 27bb and BU had only 27bb left so I decided to ship as I don't want to cbet/fold.
      At that time I thought I have tons of FE + equity if I called so I opted to shove.

      I changed my mind after checking my equity in the equilator vs that range:
      Board: KdJs8s
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 19.65% 18.40% 1.26% { Ad3d }
      MP3 80.35% 79.09% 1.26% { JJ-88, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, AQo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+ }

      How much FE would I need for this to be profitable?
      About 40%. I'm not sure if that's possible.

      Maybe c/f is the best here?
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Dawidas,

      Preflop: The only downside is that BU is very short and we are committing 11 BBs (almost 1/3 of our effective stack).

      Postflop: Given the board I agree with the check/fold.

      His range hits this board really well and I doubt much folds. Even 99-TT may call.