[NL2-NL10] NL16 KQo

    • TheWinnerTakesItAll
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 1,187
      MP2 stats 16/13 AF:3 WTSD:23 W$SD:55 fold to 3bet:47 PFR from MP:9 fold to flop cbet(3b):80(5) after 986 hands.

      Pre flop: decided to 3bet bluff with blockers and MP2 folds to flop cbet in 3bet pot a lot.

      Flop: I have OESD+ two overcards, so standart cbet.

      Turn: I think when he calls flop I'm way behind and he almost never fold on this turn. I think about x/f here. What do you think?

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.08/$0.16 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      SB (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is SB with K, Q.
      3 folds, MP2 raises to $0.48, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BB folds, MP2 calls $1.02.

      Flop: ($3.16) T, T, J (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.60, MP2 calls $1.60.

      Turn: ($6.36) 7 (2 players)
      Hero ???
  • 1 reply
    • w34z3l
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,330
      Hey TheWinnerTakesItAll,

      You have a good hand for bluffing, and it's a reasonable spot. However villains Ft3bet stat suggests this is not going to be a profitable bluff. Also of concern is his extremely low PFR. I would fold preflop.

      Flop cbet may seem standard but there is a very good chance it isn't. We know MP2 has a very tight range. If we give him TT+/AJ+ you actually only have 27% equity and 0 fold equity. If we assume he would call preflop with any PP your situation improves, but we can't really make this assumption. Possibly better even to check flop.

      I agree with your comments on the turn. C/f, but c/c if you somehow get the right price to draw. This is unlikely though, the paired board damages your implieds when you are no longer drawing to the nuts.