[NL2-NL10] NL16 AJo

    • TheWinnerTakesItAll
      TheWinnerTakesItAll
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 1,187
      BU stats 16/11 AF:1,6 WTSD:27 W$SD:53 fold to flop cbet:36 fold to turn cbet:14(7) raise turn cbet:43(7) after 1,3k hands.

      BU is a good reg.

      I don't know which line to take on the river. If I donk I will probably get action from Ks and QJ,88. If I check I'm afraid that he might check back Ks. So what should I do?

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.08/$0.16 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      UTG2:
      $16.00
      MP1:
      $6.40
      MP2 (Hero):
      $16.00
      MP3:
      $18.09
      CO:
      $11.86
      BU:
      $20.06
      SB:
      $18.92
      BB:
      $11.94
      UTG1:
      $16.00


      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J, A.
      3 folds, Hero raises to $0.48, 2 folds, BU calls $0.48, 2 folds, BB folds.

      Flop: ($1.2) J, Q, 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.70, BU calls $0.70.

      Turn: ($2.6) J (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.50, BU raises to $3.52, Hero calls $2.02.

      River: ($9.64) A (2 players)
      Hero ???
  • 5 replies
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,309
      Hey TheWinnerTakesItAll,

      I think it's unlikely villain has K in his turn raising range unless specifically K:sJx. Range is closer to QJ/88/QQ/KJ/AJ

      I think best option is to donk river here. You put villain in a tough spot if he does hold K or Jx, whereas the rest of his range is likely raising for value anyway.
    • TheWinnerTakesItAll
      TheWinnerTakesItAll
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 1,187
      I donked 6,25$ on the river, do you think my bet size is good?
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,309
      Originally posted by TheWinnerTakesItAll
      I donked 6,25$ on the river, do you think my bet size is good?
      Yeah it's ok. Your primary focus here should be to extract value from the weaker part of villains range.

      Ideally you want to bet an amount that K + lower flushes (or maybe even bluffcatching Jx) will want to call. Any boats in villains range are likely going to raise anyway.

      A dominated boat like 88 also may raise vs a smaller bet but flat against a larger bet.

      I'd probably size it closer to $4 here.
    • GreenPiece
      GreenPiece
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2010 Posts: 5,962
      And what about facing a raise on the turn? Aren't we afraid often enough to fold trips here? We have only 4 outs and I doubt he will raise KJ here, isn't it too thin for him? And every other hand he may raise here beats us, and even if he has some bluffs here, don't think he will bluff often enough after monotone flop.
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,309
      Originally posted by GreenPiece
      And what about facing a raise on the turn? Aren't we afraid often enough to fold trips here? We have only 4 outs and I doubt he will raise KJ here, isn't it too thin for him? And every other hand he may raise here beats us, and even if he has some bluffs here, don't think he will bluff often enough after monotone flop.
      I was distracted by river play and forgot to mention. It's pretty close, there is a pretty decent argument for turn fold imo.

      It is possible for villain to be raising a worse J, occasionally bluffing and occasionally be raising a flush (in which case we have more than 4 outs), so I don't think a turn call is out of the question. Certainly not a snap call or anything.