[NL2-NL10] triple barrel on paired board

    • Cooperman45
      Cooperman45
      Basic
      Joined: 14.12.2011 Posts: 62
      OnGame - $0.10 NL FAST (5 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      MakeYouFeel (BTN): $12.36 (VPIP: 35.71, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 28)
      Cooperman451 (SB): $13.38
      NzolRK (BB): $2.92 (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
      bsv_od1 (UTG): $4.51 (VPIP: 80.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 5)
      doud77_ (CO): $16.72 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 22.22, Hands: 56)

      Cooperman451 posts SB $0.05, NzolRK posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Cooperman451 has J:heart: T:spade:

      fold, doud77_ raises to $0.30, fold, Cooperman451 raises to $1.00, fold, doud77_ calls $0.70

      Flop: ($2.10, 2 players) 6:heart: 8:heart: 8:diamond:
      Cooperman451 bets $1.05, doud77_ calls $1.05

      Turn: ($4.20, 2 players) 5:heart:
      Cooperman451 bets $2.10, doud77_ calls $2.10

      River: ($8.40, 2 players) T:club:
      Cooperman451 bets $9.23 and is all-in, doud77_ calls $9.23

      Villain had ft3b of 100 so I thought this hand is a decent 3bet. When he calls I think he most likely has JJ+ and Aq+. I bet the flop to fold the a highs which I think he'll do 80% of the time. I bet turn as was going to bet any heart, 7 or 9. Didn't think I'd get that many folds but thought it could set up a shove on the river which would. Looking back on it though. I think he only folds QQ and JJ on the river which make up about 1/4 of his raneg due to the J blocker I have so most likely he has a slow played AA and KK. However, I didn't know for sure if he's slowplay these hands.
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Let's review some of your assumptions here

      "Villain had ft3b of 100 so I thought this hand is a decent 3bet."

      I think it's fine too, but look at your sample, you only have 56 hands. Don't get carried away with the stats.

      "When he calls I think he most likely has JJ+ and Aq+."

      I don't think this is a correct assumption. AK and QQ+ (maybe JJ) will usually 4bet in these late positions. My guess is that villain's calling range here is something like 77-TT, AQ, KQs, AJs and maybe he may have some more hands but the range I suggested should be the default range defended by most in CO vs SB.

      Flop: Standard to me

      Turn: You have the J backdoor FD so that's fine

      River: I don't get the point of the bet here

      "I think he only folds QQ/JJ on the River which makes out about 1/4 of his range here due to the J blocker"

      Firstly I think overpairs are largely not in his range. Secondly if he had TT-AA here, I can assure you that no one is ever folding here unless they were super nitty. I would never slowplay QQ here just to fold the River especially in late positions.

      Since you are now beating hands like 77/99, you should check and hope he checks back those hands and you will win. If he bets when checked to, you are likely up against TT/8X/flush so you can check/fold.
    • Cooperman45
      Cooperman45
      Basic
      Joined: 14.12.2011 Posts: 62
      Yer think I was looking at his range from a very results orientated view. I agree x and hope for s/d here with the pair of tens is probably the best play.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      My guess is that he had some overpair?

      That's pretty rare and you are right that you should try as much as possible not to be results oriented.