[NL2-NL10] NL2 K7 straight

    • overson
      Joined: 13.04.2008 Posts: 195
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.01/$0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (2 handed)

      Known players:
      BB (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is BB with K, 7.
      SB calls $0.01, Hero raises to $0.08, SB calls $0.06.

      Flop: ($0.16) 6, 3, 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.10, SB calls $0.10.

      Turn: ($0.36) 5 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.20, SB calls $0.20.

      River: ($0.76) 9 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.50, SB raises to $1.90, Hero raises to $2.32, SB calls $0.09.

      Final Pot: $5.07.

      Villian is 40/15/1.2/6.9 (last 2 are af and 3b)

      Can I fold here on the river? I need to win 31% vs his range, but i lose to 7T and all flushes, split with 7 straights. It's really tough since I don't think this is ever a bluff or weak hand.
  • 1 reply
    • Tomaloc
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 7,014
      his range is 7x and flushes, so best case scenario is that you split.
      why do you put the extra $0.09 in a scenario where you split or are behind? :P

      anyway, if best case scenario is a split, then how often do you need to split?
      on to the maths...

      p - probability of splitting
      1-p - probability of losing
      $2.28 - what you get when you split, which is ($0.76+$1.90+$1.90)/2
      -$1.40 - what you lose when you call and lose against better

      p*2.28 - (1-p)*1.40 = 0 (breakeven point)
      2.28p - 1.40 + 1.40p = 0
      3.68p = 1.40
      p = 0.38

      so you need to be splitting at least 38% of the time, not considering rake.

      i don't think that's happening, specially as he might not even raise a 7x some of the time because he'll be afraid of the nuts himself when you bet bigger on the river. so you can actually fold.