[NL2-NL10] NL16 A4s vs BB

    • TheWinnerTakesItAll
      TheWinnerTakesItAll
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 1,187
      BB stats 16/12 AF:1,8 fold to flop cbet:64 raise cbet:8(26) WTSD:24 W$SD:55 after 1,1k hands.


      I think that BB has a set here 99%. So I think that I have 10 outs, If I call I will need to get 4$ on the river to make call profitable. So how should I play this hand? Call on the turn and fold if I miss? I'm really afraid that he might x/fold river if a club shows up, because my line really looks like a FD. Maybe I should even fold on the turn?


      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.08/$0.16 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      BU:
      $36.86
      SB:
      $25.71
      BB:
      $16.59
      UTG1:
      $17.39
      UTG2:
      $6.18
      MP1:
      $13.55
      MP2:
      $9.08
      MP3:
      $16.00
      CO (Hero):
      $16.00


      Preflop: Hero is CO with A, 4.
      UTG1 folds, UTG2 calls $0.16, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.48, BU calls $0.48, SB folds, BB calls $0.32, UTG2 calls $0.32.

      Flop: ($2) 6, J, 3 (4 players)
      BB checks, UTG2 checks, Hero bets $1.28, BU folds, BB raises to $3.28, UTG2 folds, Hero calls $2.00.

      Turn: ($8.56) 2 (2 players)
      BB bets $5.00, Hero???
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Preflop: I usually don't like this small 3bb iso-raise but since he only has $6 it could be acceptable. How loose is he? I think this is a stack size where he could be limp/shoving a lot so I would be more cautious vs a tighter guy and I would often just fold this here (or maybe just limp behind).

      Flop: I don't think he has it 99% of the time, but probably pretty often (80%?). I would fold smaller flush draws but with the nut flush draw I don't think you can get away.

      Turn: Let's see, we are now putting him on a set right? Assuming you now have 12 outs, you hit your draw about 25% of the time. Villain has like $7.50 left behind which means that you are getting enough odds to call again on the Turn.

      You should fold without the gutshot but with the gutshot I think you have to call.
    • TheWinnerTakesItAll
      TheWinnerTakesItAll
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 1,187
      UTG 2 is 64/0 AF:3,2 after 34 hands, so he is very loose.
      On the turn if we put BB on set, we have 10 outs, because Jc and 2c improves his hand.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      ah yes, keep forgetting about that. 10 out of 46 cards = 21.8% pot odds. This makes it more of a fold then but it's close. I think BB is rarely going to be folding river even on a flush card but who knows.