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[NL20-NL50] nl40 Trips Facing River Raise

    • Ghartman
      Joined: 28.10.2011 Posts: 273
      $0.20/$0.40 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Seat 1: Player1 ( €40.00 EUR ) - VPIP: 32, PFR: 7, 3B: 0, AF: 2.2, Hands: 164
      Seat 2: Player2 ( €20.96 EUR ) - VPIP: 40, PFR: 4, 3B: 10, AF: 3.0, Hands: 75
      Seat 3: Player3 ( €40.00 EUR ) - VPIP: 20, PFR: 16, 3B: 7, AF: 2.4, Hands: 784
      Seat 4: Hero ( €43.44 EUR )
      Seat 5: Player5 ( €11.23 EUR ) - VPIP: 28, PFR: 10, 3B: 4, AF: 6.8, Hands: 196
      Seat 6: Player6 ( €41.70 EUR ) - VPIP: 44, PFR: 29, 3B: 20, AF: 2.9, Hands: 305

      Preflop: Hero is SB with K Q
      MP calls $0.40, CO calls $0.40, BTN folds, Hero raises to $2.60, BB folds, MP calls $2.20, CO folds

      Flop: ($6) K J 3 (2 players)
      Hero bets $3, MP calls $3

      Turn: ($12) K (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP checks

      River: ($12) 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $8, MP raises to $22, Hero????

      Ok, so I can't really remember much about the table dynamics at the time but, as you can see, villain was a little wacky and pretty aggro. I had been playing pretty solid and not getting too out of line but maybe a little too squeezy.

      A pretty standard squeeze spot pre-flop and MP calls. A nice flop and I'm not too scared of any turn card. I bet 1/2 pot, maybe I could go to $3.80 - $4.80 or so.

      A great turn and of course I should probably continue betting but I checked, either hoping to check/call or check raise, I'm trying out some different lines, probably a mistake though. He didn't bite so I lead out on the river, could maybe go to $9-10 but whatever. He raises and I really did not feel great here but I guess there is no other alternative here but ship? Or not? He's repping 88, maybe a slow played KJ, 33 or maybe K8 but can I fold a hand this strong here? He cannot be bluffing here so it's just a matter of whether I beat more of his value hands? Let me know what you think.

  • 2 replies
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Ghartman,

      Preflop: Given the villain type we are 3-betting here for value.

      Postflop: Why can't he bluff there?

      You took a line of bet 1/2 pot, ck turn and bet 3/4 on the river. So our hand may not look strong either and thus may easily induce a bluff raise.

      So I think that we have at least a call.
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      A. I disagree that he cannot be bluffing here. Maybe he doesn't do it too often but he definitely might be capable of bluffing some % of the time

      B. Pot odds = 14/56 = 25%. Pretty easy call IMO + your hand is so under-represented

      C. I don't get why you didn't bet the Turn, this looks like a pretty easy bet bet bet scenario to me. Expect him to call down with a ton of worse KX and some JX hands.

      D. Shipping would be bad. Villain is mainly repping a weirdly played KX, some air, 88 and K8.