[NL2-NL10] NL5 FR QTo river spot - bluffcatching

    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Known Players:
      UTG3: $2.35 - 47 bb
      MP1: $1.96 - 39 bb
      MP2: $4.47 - 89 bb
      MP3: $1.99 - 40 bb
      CO: $4.58 - 92 bb
      BU: $5.52 - 110 bb
      SB: $8.20 - 164 bb
      BB: $2.14 - 43 bb

      0.02/0.05 No Limit Hold'em (8 Handed)
      Hand recorder for this hand: PokerStrategy.com SideKick 1.1.417.4

      Preflop: Hero is BU with Q:spade: , T:diamond:
      SB posts small blind ($0.02), BB posts big blind ($0.05), 2 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises for $0.20, SB calls, BB folds, MP2 calls

      Flop: ($0.65 - 13 bb) K:spade: , 9:heart: , 4:club: (3 Players)
      2 checks, Hero bets $0.35, SB calls, MP2 folds

      Turn: ($1.35 - 27 bb) Q:diamond: (2 Players)
      SB checks, Hero checks

      River: ($1.35 - 27 bb) K:club: (2 Players)
      SB bets $0.65, Hero folds, SB gets uncalled back ($0.65)

      -----

      MP2 was 20/8/0 over 79 - my target.
      SB was 17/9/0 over 123 - loose passive.

      Preflop: isolating a fish.

      Flop: quite a dry flop + I have a gutshot = cbet.

      Turn: after being called I put SB on a Kx, possible 99/44. And though I improve I don't beat his calling range so I check.

      River: when K comes it's 33% less likely he has one. I start thinking that he may have some JJ-TT and even lower PPs in his range.

      I need 25.39% equity to break-even and it seems that I barely have enough so it's not a mistake to fold here.
      Board: Ks9h4cQdKc
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 27.27% 27.27% 0.00% { QsTd }
      MP3 72.73% 72.73% 0.00% { JJ-99, 44, KTs+, KTo+ }

      If we add in some A9 then we must call:
      Board: Ks9h4cQdKc
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 46.67% 46.67% 0.00% { QsTd }
      MP3 53.33% 53.33% 0.00% { JJ-99, 44, A9s, KTs+, A9o, KTo+ }
  • 1 reply
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      there arnt many draws on the board so im expecting him to have called with a hand like Kx 9X or a straight draw or a pocket pair.

      on the river, i dont expect him to be betting out often as a bluff although hes not representing much but i think more often hes going to have a value hand here like Kx than a bluff so i think folding is fine.

      cgf