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[NL2-NL10] 44 on SB 6max

    • HrabriLavek
      Joined: 23.09.2012 Posts: 450
      UTG is 65/19 AF 1.5 over 40 hands
      BU is 23/15 AF 0.7 over 60 hands

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.04(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($4.11)
      BB ($1.20)
      UTG ($4.83)
      CO ($4)
      BTN ($4.40)

      Dealt to Hero 4:diamond: 4:club:

      UTG raises to $0.16, fold, BTN calls $0.16, Hero calls $0.14, fold

      FLOP ($0.52) 5:diamond: 2:spade: 4:heart:

      Hero bets $0.40, UTG calls $0.40, BTN folds

      TURN ($1.32) 5:diamond: 2:spade: 4:heart: 7:spade:

      Hero bets $1.26, UTG calls $1.26

      RIVER ($3.84) 5:diamond: 2:spade: 4:heart: 7:spade: A:club:

      Hero checks, UTG bets $3.01 (AI), Hero calls $2.29 (AI)

      Hero shows 4:diamond: 4:club: (Pre 52%, Flop 98.4%, Turn 100.0%)UTG shows J:heart: K:club: (Pre 48%, Flop 1.6%, Turn 0.0%)Hero wins $8

      I call with my 44 to setmine

      I hit my set on the flop and lead in for value and protection...board is quite drawy and BU might chase straight here...doubt UTG could have low cards here even though he is pretty loose

      Not a nice card to see on the turn more possibilites here...I bet big for value and protection...not planning to fold my set vs player this loose and he seems to just call my bets

      A puts more possibilites on the board..just a 3 might beat me..but again, I dont think he would open with such low cards UTG even though he is loose...I check here with intent to call...he might just fold to my agression since draw is obvious, he is going to call if he has me beat anyway...with checking I give him chance to throw a bluff and makes my call more profitable and with more odds to win instead of me just shoving it in here...he could also check behind and go for showdown with which I have no problem since the board is kind of scary
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Lavek,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: Your line is more profitable than just betting out yourself only if you expect hands like he had here. Given the limited info and the line we took I can't see many of those hands in his range.

      And given that your stack is about half the pot size I can't really see anything folding the river (pair wise) and those same hands may very well check back.

      So we should ship there.