[NL20-NL50] 50NL AQ TPTK value vs fish ?

    • dozeer
      dozeer
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.07.2011 Posts: 186
      Full Tilt, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, Rush, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (BB): $65.80 (131.6 bb)
      UTG: $50.25 (100.5 bb)
      MP: $56.55 (113.1 bb)
      CO: $55.10 (110.2 bb)
      BTN: $38.20 (76.4 bb)
      SB: $37.40 (74.8 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with Q A
      4 folds, SB completes, Hero raises to $2, SB calls $1.50

      Flop: ($4) Q 7 3 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $2.80, SB calls $2.80

      Turn: ($9.60) 5 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $6.70, SB calls $6.70

      River: ($23) 4 (2 players)
      SB checks


      Hi,

      opp is fishy 21/12 over 200 hands, steal from SB 1/5

      do you think we have a value bet here ?

      here is what I think is his riv range, might be bit too pesimistic tho

      MP2 47.83% 47.83% 0.00% AsQc
      MP3 52.17% 52.17% 0.00% 77-66, 44, A6s, Q9s-Q5s, 76s, QTo-Q8o

      I think this player type is likely to slowplay fair amount of 2pair+ hands.

      your thoughts ?

      cheers
  • 2 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Hey,

      This is the river calling range I would give him usually:


      Board: Q:spade: 7:club: 3:diamond:  5:spade:  4:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    53.08%  53.08%   0.00% { AsQd }
      MP3    46.92%  46.92%   0.00% { 77-55, 33, Q8s+, 74s+, Q9o+ }


      It's close, your assumption is decent too, except I don't see how he gets to the river with 44 so I excluded that, added 74s and 75s and kept about the same number of Qx.

      Value bet here is thin and the more spewy you look, the more likely you are to get called by hands like 88-99, A7, etc.
    • dozeer
      dozeer
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.07.2011 Posts: 186
      thanks, looks good.

      you are right about the 44, he would have to be rly big station to peel two bets with that holding.