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[NL20-NL50] Preflop line doubts

    • maheepsangari
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      PKR, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      UTG: $9.62 (38.5 bb) 85/50 12 hands
      MP: $10.20 (40.8 bb) 83/0 6 hands
      CO: $48.52 (194.1 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $41.24 (165 bb)
      SB: $11.90 (47.6 bb)
      BB: $28.47 (113.9 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with 8 7
      UTG raises to $1, MP calls $1, CO folds, Hero calls $1, 2 folds

      Squeeze or flat?

      Flop: ($3.35) 9 6 4 (3 players)
      UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets $2.23, UTG calls $2.23, MP folds

      Turn: ($7.81) 6 (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero checks

      River: ($7.81) T (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $3.90, UTG folds
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      Preflop: This is just a fold. 4bb open + 2 mid stackers below 40bb makes this a very unprofitable call. It's great that their ranges are wide, but you only have 8 high here.

      What's the worse suited connector I'm calling? T9s is close, JTs is probably a call.

      Flop: They both check and they will have a ton of air so I think it's fine to bet with your OESD.

      Turn: Villain now has slightly less than 7 here. This is a clear ship. He can definitely c/c Flop with a ton of weak hands like AK/AQ/AJ/KQ.

      You could try working out the math if you are interested.

      A) When he folds, you win 7$ in the pot
      B) When he calls, and you miss the river, you lose X
      C) When he calls, and you hit your straight on the river a% of the time, you win Y
      EV = P(A)*7 + P(B)*X + P(C)*Y
      Set EV = 0 and find out the min amount of fold equity required to break-even on a push.