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[NL2-NL10] AQ nl2 FR

    • deivid2
      Joined: 23.05.2009 Posts: 6,366
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.02(BB) Replayer
      SB ($2.03)
      BB ($0.68)
      UTG ($0.77)
      UTG+1 ($1.14)
      UTG+2 ($1.66)
      MP1 ($2.76)
      CO ($2.07)
      Hero ($3.51)

      Dealt to Hero A:club: Q:diamond:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to $0.08, Hero calls $0.08, fold, fold

      FLOP ($0.19) 6:spade: 9:diamond: A:diamond:

      CO bets $0.09, Hero calls $0.09

      TURN ($0.37) 6:spade: 9:diamond: A:diamond: 8:spade:

      CO bets $0.18, Hero calls $0.18

      RIVER ($0.73) 6:spade: 9:diamond: A:diamond: 8:spade: J:diamond:

      CO checks, Hero bets $0.26, CO calls $0.26

      15/12/3.2 762H

      PRE: Standard call.

      F: stand call he has CB 92%

      T: 38% TB so he has strong hand like TP+ or FD so easy call

      R: flush comes he x so he never has flush here, so i expect he always has TP, w/ sets i expect he bets bigger so his range look like this:

      Stół: A:diamond: 9:diamond: 6:spade:  8:spade:  J:diamond:
             Equity  Wygrana  Podział
      MP2    41.18%   35.29%    5.88% { AcQd }
      MP3    58.82%   52.94%    5.88% { A2s+, A8o+ }

      so my VB river is horrible...
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      The river bet is definitely sub-optimal. I would bet on a blank River though. I think villain will often c/c the River with AK/AJ, and c/f some weaker Ax hands because you are not really repping any air so it doesn't make too much sense for him to c/c the River with a hand like A2s.

      Even when you have been so optimistic with your river assumptions, you are still an underdog. IMO you have way less than 40% equity here so this makes it a very clear check.