[NL20-NL50] NL50 AA vs. overbet shove on a monotone board

    • AchillesBG
      Joined: 06.02.2011 Posts: 4,586
      Prima, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $63.41 (126.8 bb)
      Hero (BB): $51.08 (102.2 bb)
      MP: $54.77 (109.5 bb)
      CO: $121.76 (243.5 bb)
      BTN: $106.34 (212.7 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A:heart: A:spade:
      MP folds, CO raises to $1, BTN folds, SB calls $0.75, Hero raises to $5.50, CO calls $4.50, SB folds

      Flop: ($12) 6:club: 3:club: 8:club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $8, CO raises to $116.26 and is all-in, Hero ($37.58)?

      Anon. table - no HUD

      I know that he is a fish - limping, not folding to 3bets, not folding to Cbets. Haven`t seen him do anything crazy aggressive.

      Do you think that he can shove an overpair or FD+over, or TP+FD?
  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      Hey A,

      Tough to really say.. I'd give him this range but I might be a bit wrong..

      Board: 8:club: 3:club: 6:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    32.56%  32.11%   0.45% { AhAs }
      MP3    67.44%  66.99%   0.45% { 88, 66, JdJc, JhJc, JsJc, TdTc, ThTc, TsTc, 9d9c, 9h9c, 9s9c, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, AcTc, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs }

      I don't know if he ships all flushes in his range.. the thing is that even if he does it with a wide range, you still never get great pot odds. I personally lean towards a fold but this is thinking of what I know of my overbetting range in such a spot to be. For example, my range here will contain quite some value hands against a non-believer and would add good equity bluffs.