[NL20-NL50] 99 OP+GS vs turnraise

    • jazzy29
      Joined: 06.11.2012 Posts: 308
      Button ($15.36)
      SB ($25)
      BB ($25.35)
      UTG ($26)
      Hero (MP) ($25)
      CO ($29.62)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with 9, 9
      1 fold, Hero bets $0.85, CO calls $0.85, 3 folds

      Flop: ($2.05) 7, 2, 5 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.35, CO calls $1.35

      Turn: ($4.75) 6 (2 players)
      Hero bets $3.30, CO raises to $6.60, Hero calls $3.30

      River: ($17.95) J (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $8.75, Hero folds

      Total pot: $17.95 | Rake: $0.81

      Hey, villain was unknown. Do you think a call is EV+ in this spot? I mean I got potodds around 4,5:1 so around 20%, the gutshot should give me less to call but I thought about implieds as he won't give up a set. The question is, are those implieds really there? I mean, will he really give a hole stack if 4 cards for a street are on the board?
      I think a fold in this situation would still be a good move and not much worse than a call, would you agree my argumentation?
  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Hey J,

      I personally don't like betting that turn. Firstly, you over-rep your hand imo.. You open MP and bet twice.. That's quite some strength on a board that coordinates more. Once he calls the flop and that turn card it really improves his range. Furthremore, I would like to have a check/call range in this spot. I would use this hand since if he floated overs, he will bet but will fold to a second barrel.

      As played, there's not much of a difference between call or fold imo, like you also said.