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[NL2-NL10] NL10 JT river value bet too thin?

    • tommygecko
      tommygecko
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.08.2012 Posts: 1,229
      Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $9.61 (96.1 bb)
      SB: $9.75 (97.5 bb)
      BB: $20.50 (205 bb)
      UTG: $10 (100 bb)
      MP: $15.13 (151.3 bb)
      Hero (CO): $10 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with J T
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN folds, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

      Flop: ($0.90) J T 6 (3 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.70, SB calls $0.70, BB folds

      Turn: ($2.30) 6 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $1.60, SB calls $1.60

      River: ($5.50) K (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $2.60, SB folds

      Results:
      $5.50 pot ($0.25 rake)
      Final Board: J T 6 6 K
      SB mucked and lost (-$2.60 net)
      Hero mucked J T and won $5.25 ($2.65 net)


      On the river I think the bet was bad because most AJ,QJ would not call 3 barrels and some draws got there. Also KQ got there too and beats our two pair.

      Maybe a smaller bet to get Jx to call is fine? But he might sense weakness and bluff of course.
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Hi.

      The river bet is not thin at all. I think I would bet even larger to $3.50 or $4. It's too bad that he was weak this time - KQ and AJ are not folding IMO.

      thanks.
    • tommygecko
      tommygecko
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.08.2012 Posts: 1,229
      KQ actually beats us because the board paired. I'm not sure if AJ is calling such a huge bet on the river. It feels like we are value betting vs a very narrow part of his range which may not even call. He is also afraid that the K helped us in some way (improves KQ, Q9, KJ)
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      whoops i didn't see the board pairing.

      now i don't think you can value bet here. You are an underdog vs a typical calling range.

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: JcTh6d6sKs
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 52.94% 52.94% 0.00% { AJs, KJs+, QJs, AJo, KJo+, QJo }
      MP3 47.06% 47.06% 0.00% { JTs, JTo }

      I did not add any 6X hands which could potentially be slowplayed. I think this is definitely a check. And you are not even guaranteed a call from QJ/AJ.