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[NL2-NL10] NL5 FR KQs river spot - value betting

    • Dawidas888
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Known Players:
      UTG2: $3.86 - 77 bb
      UTG3: $2.79 - 56 bb
      MP1: $5.00 - 100 bb
      MP2: $5.48 - 110 bb
      MP3: $5.44 - 109 bb
      CO: $2.00 - 40 bb
      BU: $5.10 - 102 bb
      SB: $4.22 - 84 bb
      BB: $5.70 - 114 bb

      0.02/0.05 No Limit Hold'em (9 Handed)
      Hand recorder for this hand: SideKick 1.1.417.4

      Preflop: Hero is BU with K:club: , Q:club:
      SB posts small blind ($0.02), BB posts big blind ($0.05), 5 folds, CO raises for $0.15, Hero calls, 2 folds

      Flop: ($0.37 - 7.40 bb) Q:heart: , 5:diamond: , 2:spade: (2 Players)
      CO bets $0.15, Hero calls

      Turn: ($0.67 - 13.40 bb) A:diamond: (2 Players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $0.40, CO calls

      River: ($1.47 - 29.40 bb) Q:diamond: (2 Players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $4.40, CO calls, Hero gets uncalled back ($3.10)


      CO was 12/10/12 over 152.
      Steal 41 (CO - 13)
      Cbet: F - 83; T - 33

      My hand is good enough to just call.
      I cannot 3bet for value because if he calls I am either dominated or it's a 50/50.
      I also don't want to turn my hand into a bluff as it has a good playability postflop and by calling I keep his weaker range in the hand.

      The flop is very dry so raising is out of the question because I would isolate myself vs AQ/KK+/sets. No evidence that he is calling light.
      Can't fold TP, so a call.

      His cbets turn only 1 out of 3 times so it is very likely that an A helped him. However, the stat sample is somewhat small.
      Could I consider a fold here?

      His check is probably a c/call. He has 26bb left, less than pot. I am sure that I pretty much have the nuts here.
      I think I can shove here for value as A could have a hard time folding. It's also possible he has weaker Qx.
      Is this a thin shove?

      Board: Qh5d2sAdQd
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 75.89% 73.21% 2.68% { KcQc }
      MP3 24.11% 21.43% 2.68% { AA, QQ, 55, 22, ATs+, KQs, QTs+, ATo+, KQo, QTo+ }
  • 4 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      Turn: I don't think you have 3 streets of value here vs a tight guy. Besides, I think there is a good chance that a tight player checks AX here for pot control and there are plenty of such players out there who would c/c with AX but bet with air.

      I think it's a better idea to check Turn and bet River instead. Vs a loose aggro guy, then I think betting Turn and betting River would be the better option, since we can probably assume that a loose/aggro opponent would never check AX here and you have KQ which is like the 2nd nuts after KK.

      River: After betting Turn I don't see how you can avoid betting the River. You probably have the best hand now and when you improve to trips you should definitely bet again and hope he either has QJ/QT or some AK/AJ type of hand.

      I don't think it's thin at all especially when you improved to trips. But I prefer checking Turn because I don't think you can go for 3 streets of value on a blank river.

    • Dawidas888
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Hi mbml

      Thanks for the evaluation!

      Yeah, I agree that checking the turn and betting river is better here. For some reason I read that he bet into me and I considered calling/folding.

      Thanks for all the help.
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      no problem!

      remember you should always think about how thinly the opponent is value betting. nits love pot controlling their top pair/overpair hands on the Turn and they usually do that for no good reason without carefully considering their relative hand strength.
    • Dawidas888
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      These are some golden tips you are giving me today! Thanks! :f_love: