[NL2-NL10] NL5 FR A9o turn/river spots - thin value betting

    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Known Players:
      UTG2: $5.37 - 107 bb
      UTG3: $2.41 - 48 bb
      MP1: $2.14 - 43 bb
      MP2: $3.06 - 61 bb
      MP3: $2.00 - 40 bb
      CO: $7.68 - 154 bb
      BU: $5.06 - 101 bb
      SB: $3.26 - 65 bb
      BB: $3.54 - 71 bb

      0.02/0.05 No Limit Hold'em (9 Handed)
      Hand recorder for this hand: PokerStrategy.com SideKick 1.1.417.4

      Preflop: Hero is BU with A:diamond: , 9:spade:
      SB posts small blind ($0.02), BB posts big blind ($0.05), UTG2 calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Hero raises for $0.30, SB folds, BB calls, 3 folds

      Flop: ($0.77 - 15.40 bb) J:spade: , J:diamond: , 9:diamond: (2 Players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.40, BB calls

      Turn: ($1.57 - 31.40 bb) 7:diamond: (2 Players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.80, BB calls

      River: ($3.17 - 63.40 bb) 8:diamond: (2 Players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1, BB calls

      -----

      UTG 2, MP2 & CO - recreational players.
      BB was 13/6/4 over 427. FtCB: F - 45; T - 50.

      PREFLOP
      Isolating the recreational players. I can't call and I didn't want to fold.

      FLOP
      Value betting vs lower PPs and protecting vs broadways. I would expect BB to 3bet QQ+, AK.
      Bet/folding.

      TURN
      I think it's a very thin value bet on the turn. I think a check behind is probably slightly better
      as there are very few hands in his range that would call the flop and turn bets.
      Bet/folding.

      RIVER
      I opted for a very very thin value bet vs possibly Kd/Qd/QJ/JT.
      Bet/folding.
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Preflop: Since this is NL5 where everyone is looser on average, you might want to iso-raise to 7 or even 8bb.

      Flop: With 2nd pair Top kicker and the board being moderately draw heavy, I think a bet is the best line here.

      Turn: Yes you should check here, I don't think many worse hands are calling you. T8 got there, so did the diamond flush draw.

      River: This bet is too small. Just bet 50-70% of the pot and hope to get called by a diamond.

      Thanks.
    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Hi mbml

      Thanks for the evaluation!

      RIVER
      This guy has only 40BB left behind on the river. He is also very tight.
      If I shove on the river there are very few worse hands that would call me.
      Don't forget, he 3bets QQ+/AK preflop. So he can have only KQ/AQ with Kd or Qd. Our betting on 3 streets indicates strength. If anything, I would argue for a check rather than a larger bet in this spot so are you sure that betting larger would be more optimal here?

      Thanks again!
      Dawidas
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Honestly I don't see him having too many full houses.

      With your 9, you block J9 (I guess there are only 2 combos of J9s) and 99 (1 combo). Maybe he calls once with an underpair like 77 even though I think that would be a pretty bad play since his pair would be counterfeited if the 9 pairs the board.

      So that leaves him with around 6 full house combos. Other than at, I don't really think you should be afraid of losing to too many hands.

      On the other hand, he may herocall with QT, maybe he has some other broadway diamonds like KJ/QJ/KQ/KT. I do think that there are enough combos of worse hands to call you on the River.

      Thanks.