[NL2-NL10] NL5 FR 99 river spot - bet/folding for value

    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Known Players:
      UTG2: $6.71 - 134 bb
      UTG3: $5.18 - 104 bb
      MP1: $5.00 - 100 bb
      MP2: $2.05 - 41 bb
      MP3: $6.03 - 121 bb
      CO: $5.70 - 114 bb
      BU: $3.86 - 77 bb
      SB: $5.25 - 105 bb
      BB: $5.00 - 100 bb

      0.02/0.05 No Limit Hold'em (9 Handed)
      Hand recorder for this hand: PokerStrategy.com SideKick 1.1.417.4

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9:spade: , 9:diamond:
      SB posts small blind ($0.02), BB posts big blind ($0.05), 4 folds, Hero raises for $0.20, CO calls, 3 folds

      Flop: ($0.47 - 9.40 bb) K:heart: , 5:heart: , 2:club: (2 Players)
      Hero bets $0.30, CO calls

      Turn: ($1.07 - 21.40 bb) 7:diamond: (2 Players)
      Hero bets $0.60, CO calls

      River: ($2.27 - 45.40 bb) 9:heart: (2 Players)
      Hero bets $1.50, CO raises for $4.60, Hero folds, CO gets uncalled back ($3.10)

      -----

      CO was 50/1/3 over 105. FtCB: F - 88; T - 0.

      PREFLOP
      Standard OR.

      FLOP
      Value betting vs CO's very wide range (88-/FD/5x/43s etc.)
      Bet/folding.

      TURN
      Value betting vs the same range. Could his high FtCB on the flop % indicate a too thin value bet here?
      Bet/folding.

      RIVER
      Bet/folding for value vs Kx/lowet sets/2pairs etc.
      I insta folded vs a raise assuming it's gonna be flush more than 67% of the times.
  • 5 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Flop: Fold to Flop cbet = 88%. You are not getting value from anything. I would check here.

      Turn: The turn bet just isolates you vs better made hands. Maybe you are getting value from flush draws but that's about it.

      River: As played this is definitely a bet but when you get raised I'm pretty sure he has the flush 90% of the time.

      Thanks.
    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Hi mbml

      Thanks for the evaluation.

      FLOP
      What about protection on the flop? I don't want to give him free overcards and I don't mind him folding. I think checking is too weak. And would we c/call or c/fold? Vs his wide preflop calling range I think betting is fine.

      TURN
      I agree that check/folding flop might be a slightly more +EV option.

      Thanks again for the help!
      Dawidas
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      no problem :)

      Flop: Betting is fine but so is checking. I don't think one option is greatly superior over the other. But if you had QQ or JJ here I would very much prefer checking since those hands are less vulnerable and you can always go for a delayed cbet. With weaker pocketpairs like 33 I would prefer just betting and hoping to take the pot down.

      Turn: Yes I would c/f the Turn
    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      I admire your patience :f_biggrin:

      One more question:
      So with QQ/JJ your plan is to c/f flop and bet turn? Or c/c as you would expect him to bluff? What is the reasoning behind a check - you don't get value so no bet? Following this logic a bet on the turn wouldn't make sense as he is still folding hands that are beat :f_confused: Could you explain this a bit more please?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      I don't like the idea of check/folding - It's way too weak and requires the assumption that villain never bluffs at all which is not the case for majority of opponents.

      I check here with those hands cos betting gives me not too much value (and I can always go for the value on later streets) and also to induce bluffs.

      So check/call with QQ/JJ is my preferred option. With 99 it's more vulnerable, c/c is still a viable option but betting could be better. With 66/77/88 I think it's slightly too weak to c/c so you can opt for the c/f option instead and pray villain doesn't bluff you out of the hand, and let you show it down.

      Also by checking the Flop, bad players will completely mis-read your hand as air. What happens usually is that
      A. They pay you off too light with worse value hands like bottom pair
      B. They bluff way too often cos they just think you are super weak when in reality when you check on such a nice board to cbet, you usually have a medium strength hand strong enough to play for 2 bets at the very least.