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[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH 99 overplayed?

    • SPeedFANat1c
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($23.94)
      Hero ($23.01)
      UTG ($29.14)
      UTG+1 ($18.86)
      CO ($28.61)
      BTN ($22.67)

      Dealt to Hero 9:club: 9:spade:

      UTG raises to $0.70, UTG+1 calls $0.70, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.50

      FLOP ($2.20) 5:heart: 5:club: 5:diamond:

      Hero bets $1.50, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $1.50

      TURN ($5.20) 5:heart: 5:club: 5:diamond: 6:diamond:

      Hero bets $3.10, UTG+1 calls $3.10

      RIVER ($11.40) 5:heart: 5:club: 5:diamond: 6:diamond: 4:spade:

      Hero bets $17.71 (AI), UTG+1 calls $13.54

      Hero shows 9:club: 9:spade:
      (Pre 81%, Flop 89.2%, Turn 6.8%)

      UTG+1 shows 6:heart: 6:club:
      (Pre 19%, Flop 10.8%, Turn 93.2%)

      UTG+1 wins $36.56

      anonimous table, from the stack size looks fishy.

      He can call with 88, 77, since nobody ever folds fullhouse according to some theorem then he might call 22,33 but in reality those fold.

      Of course if I use bigger sizes on flop and turn, then river easy shove. But somehow on such board when I bet I think there will be so many foklds and I want overcards to call so make sizing smaller on flop and turn.
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      I think there's a good chance that you are overplaying this hand.

      Flop: I usually check here but with a fish in the hand I think it's reasonable to lead.

      Turn: I don't think you can necessarily discount some higher pocket pairs from his range like JJ and AA. But you can still value bet the Turn IMO.
      Board: 5c5h5d6d
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 59.57% 58.61% 0.96% { 9s9c }
      MP3 40.43% 39.47% 0.96% { AA, JJ-66, 44-22 }

      River: River jam is definitely overplay. I don't think he calls 33/22 all the time, and you need to make smaller bets if you want to widen his calling range. I already think it's pretty close and I removed 22 from his river calling range.

      Board: 5c5h5d6d4s
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 50.00% 48.84% 1.16% { 9s9c }
      MP3 50.00% 48.84% 1.16% { AA, JJ-66, 44-33 }

      If you want to bet, bet something like 1/3 pot. Since he's a fish he is probably passive and is unlikely to raise your block bet.