[NL2-NL10] NL5 FR Q7s river spot - raise or call?

    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Known Players:
      UTG3: $4.76 - 95 bb
      MP1: $1.93 - 39 bb
      MP2: $3.80 - 76 bb
      MP3: $6.01 - 120 bb
      CO: $8.59 - 172 bb
      BU: $5.16 - 103 bb
      SB: $6.02 - 120 bb
      BB: $5.07 - 101 bb

      0.02/0.05 No Limit Hold'em (8 Handed)
      Hand recorder for this hand: PokerStrategy.com SideKick 1.1.417.4

      Preflop: Hero is BB with Q:diamond: , 7:diamond:
      SB posts small blind ($0.02), Hero posts big blind ($0.05), UTG3 calls, 6 folds, Hero checks

      Flop: ($0.12 - 2.40 bb) J:diamond: , 3:heart: , 2:diamond: (2 Players)
      Hero bets $0.10, UTG3 calls

      Turn: ($0.32 - 6.40 bb) 7:club: (2 Players)
      Hero checks, UTG3 bets $0.30, Hero calls

      River: ($0.92 - 18.40 bb) 7:heart: (2 Players)
      Hero checks, UTG3 bets $0.90, Hero raises for $2.70, UTG3 calls

      -----

      UTG3 was 12/8/7 over 91.

      PREFLOP
      I get a free play. UTG3 range is often made up of low PPs/SC.

      FLOP
      I donk bet with my draw in hopes that he folds his 88-44.
      Check/call is bad and another option is to just c/f. I don't like giving away free money though.

      TURN
      When called I expect him to check back his lower pairs if he didn't fold. There is less value in betting as well.
      Vs his big bet I opted to call as I had 14 outs to improve.

      RIVER
      I opted to c/raise for value. In case he was trapping with OP.
      In retrospect, vs his big bet and the possibility of low PPs given his limp a call might not be such a bad idea either.
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Dawidas,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: Given you play against such a nitty players I think that you will often face 22/33 or on occasion slowplayed AA/KK (that were looking to limp/reraise).

      So we either just call or overbet shove. I don't see a middle point there.
    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Hi Bogdan

      Thanks for the evaluation!

      Which option do you prefer - c/c or c/shove?

      I think it's a close spot as there are 12 combos of KK/AA and 6 combos of sets. However, it's not a given that he always calls with KK/AA. For the shove to be profitable he must call with KK/AA more than 50% of the times. Would you assume that that's the case?

      Thanks again!
      Dawidas
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Dawidas888
      Hi Bogdan

      Thanks for the evaluation!

      Which option do you prefer - c/c or c/shove?

      I think it's a close spot as there are 12 combos of KK/AA and 6 combos of sets. However, it's not a given that he always calls with KK/AA. For the shove to be profitable he must call with KK/AA more than 50% of the times. Would you assume that that's the case?

      Thanks again!
      Dawidas
      I have no doubt that KK/AA call there every time. However my doubts are with how often he limps KK/AA and then how often he just calls flop versus raising it.

      Given he is such a nit and not a fish I'd probably prefer the call without additional info.