[NL2-NL10] Correct odds or suckout?

    • Edukator99
      Edukator99
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.07.2010 Posts: 240
      Ok I need to get this figured out once and for all: Here's the hand:

      PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: 65 BB (VPIP: 46.15, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
      SB: 97.5 BB (VPIP: 14.71, PFR: 8.82, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 35)
      Hero (BB): 156.5 BB
      UTG: 98.5 BB (VPIP: 8.54, PFR: 4.04, 3Bet Preflop: 1.39, Hands: 201)
      UTG+1: 77.5 BB (VPIP: 80.00, PFR: 60.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
      UTG+2: 33.5 BB (VPIP: 26.53, PFR: 18.37, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 49)
      MP: 51.5 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 3.77, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 55)
      MP+1: 104.5 BB (VPIP: 7.69, PFR: 5.13, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 78)
      CO: 97 BB (VPIP: 8.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6:heart: 6:club:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to 3 BB, fold, MP raises to 5 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 5 BB, fold, Hero calls 4 BB, fold

      Flop: (18.5 BB, 3 players) 5:spade: 8:heart: 7:diamond:
      Hero bets 12.5 BB, MP raises to 46.5 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero calls 34 BB

      Turn: (111.5 BB, 2 players) J:club:

      River: (111.5 BB, 2 players) 4:spade:

      Hero shows 6:heart: 6:club: (Straight, Eight High) (Pre 20%, Flop 39%, Turn 23%)
      MP shows K:spade: K:club: (One Pair, Kings) (Pre 80%, Flop 61%, Turn 77%)
      Hero wins 107.5 BB


      I bet the flop hoping to fold out all hands or at least get a call, then check fold the next street if I missed.

      As played....When the villain went all in I realized I might be in a positive EV situation pot odds wise. I know I had about a 36% chance of hitting my straight, plus two sixes which were possible outs. I thought I had about a 40% chance of hitting the winning hand...unless he had a straight, or an over set.

      Please clarify how to calculate the pot odds...Do I add my bet to the total and THEN calculate it like this:

      1.55 in the pot + .68 = 2.55
      .68/2.55=26% or 4:1

      In this case I have to call.

      OR

      Do I calculate odds without adding my bet to the total (this makes more sense to me but I saw it explained the other way just today)

      .68/1.55=42% or...1.38:1

      Since I think I'm close to 40% to hit a winning hand I'm slightly under even money, basically a coin flip.
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      I think PF is a pretty clear fold. You are calling 4bb more and if you follow the call20 rule, you need effective stack sizes to be 80bb but BU and UTG1 and MP have under 80bb.

      As played, I prefer to give one of them the opportunity to bluff and then you can checkraise all-in over their bet. By betting here, you are just isolating yourself vs better hands because they will just fold their overcards and only continue with larger overpairs.

      As played once you bet, you are definitely committed. You are getting around 30% pot odds and you probably have 38% equity vs most overpairs, 99 has you crushed though.
    • Edukator99
      Edukator99
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.07.2010 Posts: 240
      Well, I didn't say I really played this hand well. LOL

      so from you response... The first method of calculating pot odds is correct? Include my bet (the one I haven't made yet), then divide that by the total stack?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Pot odds = Amount to call / Total pot size after calling = 34/111.5 = 30.5%

      I gave villain a range of 88+

      Board: 5s7h8d
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 65.15% 64.50% 0.65% { 88+ }
      MP3 34.85% 34.20% 0.65% { 66 }

      This means that you are certainly committed here.