[NL2-NL10] 10nl Zoom TPGK River decision

    • Samboro
      Samboro
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2010 Posts: 17
      No reads on villain, but due to his stack I assume he's a bit of a fish.

      Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $10.37 (103.7 bb)
      SB: $16.27 (162.7 bb)
      BB: $15.41 (154.1 bb)
      Hero (UTG): $17.78 (177.8 bb)
      MP: $8.74 (87.4 bb)
      CO: $5.53 (55.3 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q K
      Hero raises to $0.30, MP folds, CO calls $0.30, BTN folds, SB calls $0.25, BB folds

      Flop: ($1) 6 K J (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.70, CO calls $0.70, SB folds

      Turn: ($2.40) 2 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.50, CO calls $1.50

      River: ($5.40) T (2 players)
      Hero bets $3.03 putting CO all in....


      I think flop and turn are OK. At the time I think I bet small OTT due to villains stack.

      OTR if I bet for value, are there many worse hands that call?
  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      What do you think CO has here on the River? It's a little tough to know what he could have on the River without reads. If he's some VPIP 80 fish then I think the river would be a pretty clear value shove.

      Assuming villain is not too loose, his KX hands are mostly going to be broadway Kings. You lose to AK/KJ/JT. Thus, I don't see how you have value here, You also lose to stuff like AQ/JT, though I'm not too sure how often he would have those type of hands. I think JX is often going to be folding on the River as well.

      So I would check. I'm not too sure how many busted draws he can have himself though, when you have the Q. But I think you can probably c/c the River and hope he has A:hX or 9:h8

      Thanks.
    • Samboro
      Samboro
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2010 Posts: 17
      Hello,

      Thanks for the great analysis.

      Yeah, when thinking about his range OTR, I think it's more heavily weighted towards big broadway K's, 2pair+.

      I think I was being results orientated in this hand. Because I assumed he was a fish I'd expect him to call the river with some junky K.

      Thanks