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[NL2-NL10] NL10 QQ vs UTG o/r

    • muel294
      muel294
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,225
      Villain is a relative unknown

      Preflop: didn't really see any reason to 3b vs UTG here. I would expect most players to fold and only continue with QQ+ AK here , so I would only ISO myself vs a stronger range. Decided to call and keep in his weaker range

      Flop: Expect him to c-bet 22+ AJ and QK here maybe some AQ/AK so decided to call and re-evaluate since I think raising might turn my hand into a bluff.

      Turn: Since I didn't know anything further about villain I assume he would only barrel here with something like TT+,22,AJs,KQs,AJo,KQo


      Board: J:heart: T:spade: 2:diamond:  2:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    55.57%  54.32%   1.25% { TT+, 22, AJs, KQs, AJo, KQo }
      CO     44.43%  43.18%   1.25% { QdQs }


      Should I just be folding here vs unknowns?

      As played...

      River: I called because I thought he might play AJ this way but obviously this is only a very small part of his range. The vast majority of hands that he triple barrels like this probably have me beat

      Although against the following range I actually have enough equity to call here don't I?


      Board: J:heart: T:spade: 2:diamond:  2:spade:  2:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    59.68%  58.06%   1.61% { TT+, 22, AJs, AJo }
      CO     40.32%  38.71%   1.61% { QdQs }


      If he plays AJ this way then we have 40% equity and we need 30% or better in order to make a call profitable (2.3:1 OTR E* = 1+2.3:1 = 1/3.3 = ~ .30 *100 = 30%)

      If he never plays AJ this or bluffs missed draws (which I think is the more likely case) then we are boned.

      Cheers

      iPoker - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BB: $4.00 (VPIP: 24.14, PFR: 17.24, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 29)
      UTG: $11.97 (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
      MP: $11.45 (VPIP: 26.67, PFR: 26.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
      Hero (CO): $10.00
      BTN: $10.82 (VPIP: 17.65, PFR: 5.88, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
      SB: $10.00 (VPIP: 18.60, PFR: 18.60, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 46)

      SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has Q:diamond: Q:spade:

      UTG raises to $0.40, fold, Hero calls $0.40, fold, fold, fold

      Flop: ($0.95, 2 players) J:heart: T:spade: 2:diamond:
      UTG bets $0.71, Hero calls $0.71

      Turn: ($2.37, 2 players) 2:spade:
      UTG bets $1.60, Hero calls $1.60

      River: ($5.57, 2 players) 2:heart:
      UTG bets $4.17, Hero calls $4.17

      UTG shows K:heart: K:diamond: (Full House, Twos full of Kings) (Pre 82%, Flop 90%, Turn 95%)
      Hero mucks Q:diamond: Q:spade: (Full House, Twos full of Queens) (Pre 18%, Flop 10%, Turn 5%)
      UTG wins $12.99
  • 2 replies
    • prime333
      prime333
      Basic
      Joined: 14.05.2012 Posts: 400
      I think vs a UTG raise this is a river fold we lose to 1010, JJ, KK, AA I don't see him firing 3 streets without a strong hand.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Muel,

      Preflop: looks fine although I think that if you were to 3-bet you can still get called by some worse hands but usually not many.

      Postflop: If he can bet AJ then we are fine but then again he may not even open AJo OOP and a lot people may play passive there and not bet this big with AJ type hands. It's a tough spot but in the end given the limit/board I think a tight fold is not the end of the world given that most people don't valuebet that much.