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[NL2-NL10] NL16SH AQs 3bet pot C/F river

    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Poker Stars $16.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      CO: $54.86
      BTN: $45.77
      SB: $42.29
      Hero (BB): $16.00

      Pre Flop: ($0.24) Hero is BB with A :club: Q :club:
      1 fold, BTN raises to $0.48, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.52, BTN calls $1.04

      Flop: ($3.12) 3 :diamond: Q :spade: T :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.60, BTN calls $1.60

      Turn: ($6.32) T :spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $3.12, BTN calls $3.12

      River: ($12.56) 2 :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $39.49, Hero folds


      Villain is 27/19 on 789 hands. his foldvscbet is about 54%, his bet river% is 28% flop agg% is 30 overall and agg% is basically 20 on both turn and river.
  • 5 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi DaPhunk,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: So you are facing a somewhat passive opponent.

      What do you think his range is for calling our 3-bet preflop and then calling down? Just flush draws? And if so which?

      I can see Qx in his range, mainly QJ and QK and possibly JJ along with some Tx and flushes. Given he is a potentially fishy guy I'd plan to bet big on flop/turn and ship most rivers even a low one that completes the flush.
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      his stats say he opens 40% on BU and folds 17% overall vs 3bets.... don't know if thats true, its 2/4 on BU so far.

      If I was to guess I'd say Open range might look like this:

      22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T4s+, 94s+, 84s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo


      then maybe he calls with this:

      JJ-22, AQs-A5s, A3s-A2s, K8s+, K6s-K3s, Q6s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, AQo-A7o, A5o, A3o-A2o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo.


      I eliminate non diamond suited cards:

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 81.94% 81.94% 0.00% JJ-TT, ATs, KTs-K9s, QTs-Q9s, J9s+, T8s+, AdQd, KdQd, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Kd8d, Qd8d, Jd8d, 9d8d, Ad7d, Qd7d, 9d7d, 8d7d, Ad6d, Kd6d, Qd6d, 8d6d, 7d6d, Ad5d, Kd5d, 7d5d, 6d5d, Kd4d, Ad3d, Kd3d, Ad2d, Kd2d, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo

      MP3 18.06% 18.06% 0.00% AcQc


      If I keep Axs of spades it looks like this:


      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 71.23% 71.23% 0.00% JJ-TT, ATs, KTs-K9s, QTs-Q9s, J9s+, T8s+, AsQs, KdQd, AsJs, KdJd, QdJd, As9s, As8s, Kd8d, Qd8d, Jd8d, 9d8d, As7s, Qd7d, 9d7d, 8d7d, As6s, Kd6d, Qd6d, 8d6d, 7d6d, As5s, Kd5d, 7d5d, 6d5d, Kd4d, As3s, Kd3d, As2s, Kd2d, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo

      MP3 28.77% 28.77% 0.00% AcQc
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by DaPhunk
      his stats say he opens 40% on BU and folds 17% overall vs 3bets.... don't know if thats true, its 2/4 on BU so far.

      If I was to guess I'd say Open range might look like this:

      22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T4s+, 94s+, 84s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo


      then maybe he calls with this:

      JJ-22, AQs-A5s, A3s-A2s, K8s+, K6s-K3s, Q6s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, AQo-A7o, A5o, A3o-A2o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo.


      I eliminate non diamond suited cards:

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 81.94% 81.94% 0.00% JJ-TT, ATs, KTs-K9s, QTs-Q9s, J9s+, T8s+, AdQd, KdQd, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Kd8d, Qd8d, Jd8d, 9d8d, Ad7d, Qd7d, 9d7d, 8d7d, Ad6d, Kd6d, Qd6d, 8d6d, 7d6d, Ad5d, Kd5d, 7d5d, 6d5d, Kd4d, Ad3d, Kd3d, Ad2d, Kd2d, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo

      MP3 18.06% 18.06% 0.00% AcQc


      If I keep Axs of spades it looks like this:


      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 71.23% 71.23% 0.00% JJ-TT, ATs, KTs-K9s, QTs-Q9s, J9s+, T8s+, AsQs, KdQd, AsJs, KdJd, QdJd, As9s, As8s, Kd8d, Qd8d, Jd8d, 9d8d, As7s, Qd7d, 9d7d, 8d7d, As6s, Kd6d, Qd6d, 8d6d, 7d6d, As5s, Kd5d, 7d5d, 6d5d, Kd4d, As3s, Kd3d, As2s, Kd2d, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo

      MP3 28.77% 28.77% 0.00% AcQc
      If I read your first line correctly he folded 2/4 to 3-bets in the BU? That's not really a sample.

      I think that the range you gave him is really wide and I wouldn't expect hands like Q7dd unless he is indeed a bigger fish. Also what happened to the offsuite Qx in your ranges?
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      hmm, I heavily skew my own ranges to the suited side of things so perhaps I'm giving him a bad range estimation. What do you think he might have?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by DaPhunk
      hmm, I heavily skew my own ranges to the suited side of things so perhaps I'm giving him a bad range estimation. What do you think he might have?
      Given the info we have I think he is skewed towards broadways, more the suited type and pocket pairs with some suited aces thrown into the mix.

      So I would definitely expect to see hands like QJ, QK, AQ, etc. as well as some NFDs and pairs.