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[NL2-NL10] NL5 FR A4s 3bet bluff flop shove

    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Known Players:
      UTG2: $5.47 - 109 bb
      UTG3: $4.15 - 83 bb
      MP1: $5.14 - 103 bb
      MP2: $6.47 - 129 bb
      MP3: $16.97 - 339 bb
      CO: $5.07 - 101 bb
      BU: $3.93 - 79 bb
      SB: $8.82 - 176 bb
      BB: $9.56 - 191 bb

      0.02/0.05 No Limit Hold'em (9 Handed)
      Hand recorder for this hand: PokerStrategy.com SideKick 1.1.417.4

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A:heart: , 4:heart:
      Hero posts small blind ($0.02), BB posts big blind ($0.05), 6 folds, BU raises for $0.10, Hero 3-bets $0.33, BB folds, BU calls

      Flop: ($0.75 - 15 bb) 7:club: , 5:spade: , 3:heart: (2 Players)
      Hero bets $0.50, BU raises for $3.58, Hero calls

      Turn: ($7.91 - 158.20 bb) 8:diamond: (2 Players)

      River: ($7.91 - 158.20 bb) K:heart: (2 Players)

      ------

      BU was 41/35/0 over 17.

      PREFLOP
      3bet bluff. From the low sample and his stack size he is likely to be loose passive, meaning that he calls 3bets light.
      Therefore, I should only 3bet for value with AQ+/TT+ and call with the rest.

      FLOP
      I need 40.31% equity to break-even.

      It's close call/fold if his range is QQ-77/55/33/A7s
      Board: 7c5s3h
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 39.79% 39.24% 0.54% { Ah4h }
      MP3 60.21% 59.67% 0.54% { QQ-77, 55, 33, A7s }

      If we he bluffs at least some % of the time with Kx the call becomes profitable.
      If not, it should be a fold.
      However, I assume he bluffs here at least sometimes.
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Dawidas

      Preflop: You have it right, ideally you want to expend your value range instead of bluffing, at least until you know more.

      However, you can definitely go higher than AQ+/TT. I'd add at least AJs, KQs there.

      As played your best case scenario is less than break even which is not great for us. It's true that it's close but I still think folding is correct.