[NL2-NL10] NL5 FR TT river spot - thin value bet

    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Known Players:
      UTG2: $1.78 - 36 bb
      UTG3: $5.00 - 100 bb
      MP1: $3.91 - 78 bb
      MP2: $5.37 - 107 bb
      MP3: $4.09 - 82 bb
      CO: $3.00 - 60 bb
      BU: $5.91 - 118 bb
      SB: $5.00 - 100 bb
      BB: $12.11 - 242 bb

      0.02/0.05 No Limit Hold'em (9 Handed)
      Hand recorder for this hand: PokerStrategy.com SideKick 1.1.417.4

      Preflop: Hero is BU with T:heart: , T:diamond:
      SB posts small blind ($0.02), BB posts big blind ($0.05), CO posts penalty big blind ($0.05), 4 folds, MP3 raises for $0.20, CO folds, Hero calls, 2 folds

      Flop: ($0.52 - 10.40 bb) A:club: , J:heart: , 4:spade: (2 Players)
      MP3 checks, Hero checks

      Turn: ($0.52 - 10.40 bb) T:spade: (2 Players)
      MP3 bets $0.35, Hero raises for $1, MP3 calls

      River: ($2.52 - 50.40 bb) Q:heart: (2 Players)
      MP3 checks, Hero checks

      -----

      MP3 was 10/8/3 over 246. Cbet - 14.

      PREFLOP
      Set mining.

      FLOP
      He had low cbet% so I figured he is trapping and opted to just give up.

      TURN
      Raised for value.
      What if he had shipped? I would have called, but I think I should fold as it's more likely to be AA/JJ than AK/AQ.

      RIVER
      Do I get value by betting here? I think he would struggle calling with 2pair and other sets beat me.
  • 1 reply
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,307
      Hey Dawidas888,

      Preflop is fine.

      Flop check back is usually the standard line with TT on this texture.

      Turn raise is ok, but it's important you get called by pair + gutshot type stuff. It's unlikely villain has an Ax unless it's a very weak Ax so you are targeting stuff like JQ/QT/KJ/KT etc. Smaller sizing might accomplish this better imo.

      Vs a ship it really depends on villain. It's not all that likely he will 3bet when you think about his range. I'd probably seriously consider folding because he doesn't usually have stuff like AJ/AT in his range. The only 2 pair he can credibly rep is TJ and he may not 3bet turn with that. QK is is potentially in his range (although he may cbet flop) and is one hand that will likely 3bet turn.

      I'd probably end up calling anyway since the guy is likely a fish and is not even full stacked. The most likely outcome however is that villain flats OOP and then pays off a river bet.

      Q is a bad river card and checking back is fine when you likely won't get called by worse.