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[NL2-NL10] NL5 FR 75s turn spot - calculating pot / implied odds

    • Dawidas888
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Known Players:
      MP2: $5.07 - 101 bb
      MP3: $2.80 - 56 bb
      CO: $6.06 - 121 bb
      BU: $5.00 - 100 bb
      SB: $5.35 - 107 bb
      BB: $8.45 - 169 bb

      0.02/0.05 No Limit Hold'em (6 Handed)
      Hand recorder for this hand: SideKick 1.1.417.4

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 7:club: , 5:club:
      SB posts small blind ($0.02), BB posts big blind ($0.05), 2 folds, Hero raises for $0.12, BU calls, 2 folds

      Flop: ($0.31 - 6.20 bb) J:diamond: , 7:spade: , 6:club: (2 Players)
      Hero bets $0.20, BU calls

      Turn: ($0.71 - 14.20 bb) A:club: (2 Players)
      Hero bets $0.40, BU raises for $1.35, Hero calls

      River: ($3.41 - 68.20 bb) K:diamond: (2 Players)
      Hero checks, BU checks


      Stealing wider (any2 as if I was BU) because:
      BU was 12/9/0 over 186 - nit.
      SB was 9/9/0 over 47 - nit.
      BB was 22/17/0 over 23 - I assume passive as no 3bets yet :) I don't mind playing him as we are a bit deeper 120 BB and I'm confident I can outplay the guy postflop.
      Also my opening is only 2.4 BB to accomodate for my wider range.

      A nice flop to cbet for value / protection. I expect to have a decent FE vs BWs.

      I could creddibly rep an Ax and make BU fold TT-88 / possibly 78 / 79.
      I also got nice equity with 14 outs.
      When raised I assume he has 2pair+. I get 2.59 : 1 odds and I need 6 : 1 (I have 7 clean outs) meaning that I'll have to get extra $3.24 on the river.
      I expect my implied odds to be good enough because:
      #1 My FD is deceptive as it's a BDFD.
      #2 The opponent is a nit so it's likely he has a strong hand when he raises.
      #3 There's less than a pot size bet left on the river.

      So my plan was:
      #1 If I improve to flush - shove the river.
      #2 If I improve to 2pair/trips/flush with paired board - bet/fold $1 (I assume I would be raised only by a FH on a paired board).
      #3 Fold if unimproved.
  • 1 reply
    • kymupa
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364

      Preflop I don't mind raising but this is one of the weakest hands I would raise here.

      Betting the flop is kind of close here, since I do expect that the guy is very PP heavy, and I don't think this guy calls a hand like QT for example.
      I wouldn't say it is too bad if we don't plan to fight for the pot if a bad turn card comes.

      On the turn I like betting again as the card is a good to bet since it improves both our equity and fold equity.
      When he raises we need roughly around 28% to call, and against AJ/77/66/JJ we have 21% so calling is fine.
      I don't like planning about donking the river here if we improve, so I'd go for a check/call there.
      Also, if we do hit two pair I think it is a clear fold there as the guy is not raising less than two pair on the turn here.