[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH Speed 99

    • Alleen86
      Alleen86
      Platinum
      Joined: 27.05.2010 Posts: 4,713
      Known Players:
      MP2: $12,44 - 124 bb
      MP3: $5,93 - 59 bb
      CO: $10,62 - 106 bb
      BU: $3,90 - 39 bb
      SB: $4,00 - 40 bb
      BB: $10,00 - 100 bb

      0,05/0,10 No Limit Hold'em (6 Handed)
      Hand recorder for this hand: PokerStrategy.com SideKick 1.1.417.4

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9:heart: , 9:club:
      SB posts small blind ($0,05), BB posts big blind ($0,10), Hero raises for $0,30, MP3 3-bets $0,60, 4 folds, Hero calls

      Flop: ($1,35 - 13.50 bb) 8:heart: , 7:diamond: , 6:spade: (2 Players)
      Hero checks, MP3 bets $0,30, Hero raises for $1, MP3 3-bets $3,10, Hero 4-bets $7,60, MP3 calls and is all in, Hero gets uncalled back ($3,27)

      Turn: ($12,01 - 120.10 bb) 5:heart: (2 Players)

      River: ($12,01 - 120.10 bb) J:club: (2 Players)



      Hello!

      I was thinking about folding it preflop after his 3-bet, but i decided to call because it was just min 3-bet. I would probably fold every lower pair.. On the flop I hit a straightdraw and an overpair so I decided for check/raising and going broke. If I give him a range of 66+, AK+, it's about a coinflip, but I'm not sure what range could I give him there..

      MP: 50/33/6 (VPIP/PFR/H)
  • 8 replies
    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Hi Alleen

      PREFLOP
      Calling preflop is fine for set mining (Call15 rule for 3bet pots). I would expect his range to be QQ+/AK as he is an unknown. When you have more info on that you can make adjustments. In lower limits it's better to be safe than sorry :f_biggrin:

      FLOP
      I think check/raise is an overplay. What do you get value from when raising?
      What do you estimate your fold equity is?

      Giving him a tight range of QQ+/AK he folds AK to your raise but he calls/3bets with QQ+ (they don't give you credit for a set in these limits). So you either win a small pot or are behind in a big pot - only your SD counts.

      My plan for this flop would be to c/c his cbet and play from there.
      Donk if you hit (as he is likely to check OP behind) or c/call again depending on the odds you get (I wouldn't rely on implied odds too much though).

      Hope this helps!
      Dawidas
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Preflop: Def calling here. I wouldn't just set mine though unless you know his 3b is like 2% over a large sample. I think this guy's range is wider than that.

      Flop: This spot is kind of interesting.

      Vs a small raise - He's likelier to be weak -> You have more fold equity
      Vs a larger raise - He's likelier to be stronger but there's more dead money in the pot and you can raise over to a committing amount or just push directly.

      It's not so much that we have value vs his entire range but we are definitely ahead of some made hands and draws (too bad there is no flush draw on this flop though), and also if he folds his overcards that's great and if we get called we do have re-draws to the straight.

      I probably wouldn't c/r at 100bb though.

      For this exact situation I think it's fine to c/r and stack off. Not thrilled about it, but i think you do have a little value from worse if he does call your raise, and if he pushes you are committed anyway in my opinion.
    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Hi mbml

      Interesting reasoning. What do you estimate MP3's range is preflop and postflop?

      Dawidas
    • Alleen86
      Alleen86
      Platinum
      Joined: 27.05.2010 Posts: 4,713
      Interesting thoughts you gave me there. Thanks!
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      hmm I'm not exactly too sure about his range, but I think it's definitely wider than just a nutted range. Maybe it could be around 5-6%, that's my guess, maybe he has more air.
    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      I think that even if his range is wider, e.g. 6.33% (99+, AQ+, KQ) I think stacking off on this flop is not such a good idea.

      Assuming that #1 when we c/r we commit and stack off and #2 he folds all his air and calls only OP then:
      2.71% stacks off (99+)
      3.62% fold (AQ+, KQ) - 57% FE.

      57% cases +$1.65.
      43% cases we have 36.16% equity
      Stack off (win) = 12.01 * 0.3616 = +$4.34
      Stack off (lose) = -$5.33 (what's left in our stack)

      Total: 1.65*0.57 + (4.34 - 5.33)*0.43 = 0.94 - 0.43 = +$0.51 (+5.1 BB)

      If the assumptions are correct then stacking off is profitable :f_biggrin:
      I wonder if there is a way to calculate an EV of calling :f_confused:

      If his range does not include KQ then:
      We have only 47% FE
      47% cases +$1.65.
      53% cases we have 36.16% equity
      Total: 1.65*0.47 + (4.34 - 5.33)*0.53 = 0.78 - 0.52 = +$0.26 (+2.6 BB)
      It's still profitable.

      Therefore, check/raising is +EV here :) please correct me if I made a mistake in my calculations.

      EDIT: Corrected winnings when he folds from $2.65 to $1.65.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      your calculations seem to be correct.

      it's pretty hard to calculate EV of calling - You have to use CardRunners EV for that.
    • Alleen86
      Alleen86
      Platinum
      Joined: 27.05.2010 Posts: 4,713
      Originally posted by Dawidas888
      I think that even if his range is wider, e.g. 6.33% (99+, AQ+, KQ) I think stacking off on this flop is not such a good idea.

      Assuming that #1 when we c/r we commit and stack off and #2 he folds all his air and calls only OP then:
      2.71% stacks off (99+)
      3.62% fold (AQ+, KQ) - 57% FE.

      57% cases +$1.65.
      43% cases we have 36.16% equity
      Stack off (win) = 12.01 * 0.3616 = +$4.34
      Stack off (lose) = -$5.33 (what's left in our stack)

      Total: 1.65*0.57 + (4.34 - 5.33)*0.43 = 0.94 - 0.43 = +$0.51 (+5.1 BB)

      If the assumptions are correct then stacking off is profitable :f_biggrin:
      I wonder if there is a way to calculate an EV of calling :f_confused:

      If his range does not include KQ then:
      We have only 47% FE
      47% cases +$1.65.
      53% cases we have 36.16% equity
      Total: 1.65*0.47 + (4.34 - 5.33)*0.53 = 0.78 - 0.52 = +$0.26 (+2.6 BB)
      It's still profitable.

      Therefore, check/raising is +EV here :) please correct me if I made a mistake in my calculations.

      EDIT: Corrected winnings when he folds from $2.65 to $1.65.
      Nice effort, mate!

      Simple and clear! Thanks!