[NL2-NL10] NL20 AQo

    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      SB:
      $36,35
      BB:
      $17,80
      UTG:
      $19,80
      Hero:
      $4,00
      UTG+2:
      $4,40
      MP1:
      $20,41
      MP2:
      $20,83
      MP3:
      $9,30
      CO:
      $20,00
      BU:
      $5,16

      0,1/0,2 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.60 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A:heart: , Q:club:
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $0,80, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls $0,80, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $0,80, 4 folds.

      Flop: ($2,70) 4:spade: , 2:club: , 9:diamond: (3 players)
      Hero checks, MP1 bets $1,00, MP3 folds, Hero ?


      Call, Push or Fold?

      If I push I have to invest 3,2 in order to win 3,70 thus:
      3,70:3,2
      1.156:1
      Thus I need 46% equity If I am right?

      If I call , my pot odds are 3,7:1 so pretty not profitable due negative Implied odds with 5 outs to be honest. I suspect MP1 will either check or bet 1/2 potsized on the Turn. Thus the pot will be then (2,50{=suspected bet on the turn} + 2,7) : 1 = 5,2:1

      Folding is quite easy to explain, you only got 5 outs atm.

      Can a judge look thoroughly at my calculations here? AQo playing from UTG is an expansion so please do not comment on that as its futile. Thanks.
  • 2 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      I would fold because of the VP$IP of MP1. It's 15... but it's only my opinion :P lets wait for judge to answer the post :)
    • 098799
      098799
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2007 Posts: 1,245
      Your oponent seems reasonable, if he donks half a pot, he probably has something. I'd simply fold.

      Pushing is wrong here, he most likely has you beat. With such a small pfr he's likely to call a raise with even overpair like TT-JJ.

      I don't like a call simply because you hardly ever can rely on implieds with short stack. With a decent big stack you may try something here, but not now, I guess.

      Maybe it's an ugly spot, so be it, bad luck.