Math question about suckouts

    • tomzyb
      tomzyb
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.08.2007 Posts: 623
      So i got sucked out 19 times more then i sucked out on opponent in last 100 SNGs. By the suckout i consider at least KK loosing vs ATo tipe of hands (70% + favourite). And every time all money in PF.
      So on the long run, should be the number of suckouts i made on opponents and they made on me equall or not?
  • 5 replies
    • NRGBlaze
      NRGBlaze
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2008 Posts: 604
      it depends on the % that you're favourite with
      with 70% chance you should be ahead 7/10 times
      but that's just on theory of course
    • opal99
      opal99
      Black
      Joined: 05.02.2008 Posts: 8,270
      Originally posted by tomzyb
      So on the long run, should be the number of suckouts i made on opponents and they made on me equall or not?
      not really

      If you're playing better (tighter) than your opponents, you're favourite to win more often => it's less likely you'll make some kind of suckout on him

      That's why it's not possible to make the same amount as you've recieved... Only against the same skilled guy.
    • cannell555
      cannell555
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.03.2008 Posts: 2,410
      Yes, if your tighter than the average donk, then you will have the better hand more often when the money goes in. Therefore you will be sucked out on more.

      If you look at the percentage you are sucked out on in a 70% favourite situations, it will be the same pecentage you suckout against others in this situation more-or-less (over a huge samplesize).

      But obviously if we get the money in ahead most of the time, we will get sucked out on more (but should be the same percentage we suckout).


      Damn, I hope that makes sence, I confuse myself when I write things down.
    • tomzyb
      tomzyb
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.08.2007 Posts: 623
      I agree you should win 70% of the time if you are 70% favourite. But you should allso win 30% of the time when you are behind, so imo the number of suckouts should get equall as opponent is allso only entitled to win 70% on the long run when he is ahead, right?

      Few interesting hands from the last 2 days that costed me not getting ITM(hand, number of suckouts, favourite):
      AA vs JJ__ 2x __80%
      AK vs AJ __ 1x__ 74%
      AA vs TT __1x__ 80%
      KK vs QQ __1x__ 80%
      KK vs AQo __1x__ 72%
      KK vs ATo __1 x __ 71%
      KK vs KQo __1x __90%
      AA vs AKo vs ATs __1x__ 90%
      AQs vs ATo __1x__ 75%
      KQs vs K5o __1x__ 75%
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by tomzyb
      So on the long run, should be the number of suckouts i made on opponents and they made on me equall or not?
      Only if you and your opponents are equally skilled.

      If you have a decent edge over your opponents then you will get sucked-out on relatively often since your opponents will persist in putting their stack in the middle with easily dominated hands. ie. Donkeys get more opportunities to suck-out than good players.