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[NL20-NL50] Nl20 Sh Qq

    • SPeedFANat1c
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($39.20)
      BB ($22.02)
      UTG ($27.62)
      CO ($20.48)
      BTN ($20.20)

      Dealt to Hero Q:spade: Q:diamond:

      fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.60, Hero raises to $2.20, fold, BTN calls $1.60

      FLOP ($4.60) 4:spade: J:spade: A:club:

      Hero bets $2.40, BTN calls $2.40

      TURN ($9.40) 4:spade: J:spade: A:club: 5:diamond:

      Hero bets $4.70, BTN calls $4.70

      RIVER ($18.80) 4:spade: J:spade: A:club: 5:diamond: 4:heart:

      Hero checks, BTN checks

      BTN shows 2:spade: A:diamond:
      (Pre 28%, Flop 86.1%, Turn 95.5%)

      Hero shows Q:spade: Q:diamond:
      (Pre 72%, Flop 13.9%, Turn 4.5%)

      BTN wins $17.86

      note (happened few hands before):
      call 3bet OOP w A7s, c/c cbet w A high, check w FD, donk river 3/4 - BLUFFER ON RIVER

      easy value bet on turn I guues, he can have many Jx and FDs.

      On river I should consider bluffcatching.
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      I really suggest you calculate your turn equity vs a calling range, cos you are being way too optimistic here.

      Default play should be to c/c Turn and c/f River.

    • SPeedFANat1c
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150

      Board: 4:spade: J:spade: A:club:  5:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    51.12%  51.12%   0.00% { QdQs }
      MP3    48.88%  48.88%   0.00% { AQs-ATs, KJs, QJs, JTs, KsQs, KsTs, QsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, AQo-ATo, KJo, QJo, JTo }

      50/50. Depends on how many suited connectors he calls and how many suited aces.

      What do you think about this turn call range estimation?
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Combodraws usually raise the Flop. Also, he could have more AXs in his range. This means that you are probably an underdog vs a Turn calling range which means that you cannot bet the Turn for value.