[NL20-NL50] NL20 AT TP. Bluffcatch river?

    • AchillesBG
      Joined: 06.02.2011 Posts: 4,561
      Prima, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP: $22.66 (113.3 bb)
      CO: $53.36 (266.8 bb)
      BTN: $20 (100 bb)
      SB: $20 (100 bb)
      Hero (BB): $24.95 (124.7 bb)
      UTG: $20.11 (100.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A:diamond: T:spade:
      UTG calls $0.20, 2 folds, BTN raises to $0.80, SB folds, Hero calls $0.60, UTG calls $0.60

      Flop: ($2.50) A:spade: 9:diamond: K:diamond: (3 players)
      Hero bets $1.40, UTG calls $1.40, BTN folds

      Turn: ($5.30) J:club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $4, UTG calls $4

      River: ($13.30) J:spade: (2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG bets $13.89, Hero calls $13.89

      UTG - 75/0 23% agg.freq., 44% (18) river. 65hands
      BTN - 25/21 88% fold to 3bet over 240 hands

      Preflop, i think calling is fine. BTN is going to isolate the fish with a wide range and i think that my hand is too strong to turn into a bluff.

      On the flop i lead for value from the fish. The sizing is too small.

      I think the turn bet is fine.

      On the river, i split with Ax, so i decided to ch/c to get value from his busted draws.

      I think that this is close to the worst case scenario (a lot of value combos and not all FD`s):

      MP2 67.92% 67.92% 0.00% AJs, KJs, QTs+, J9s, Qd8d, Td8d, Qd7d, Td7d, 8d7d, Qd6d, 8d6d, 7d6d, Qd5d, 7d5d, 6d5d, Qd4d, 6d4d, 5d4d, Qd3d, 4d3d, Qd2d, AJo, KJo, QTo+, J9o
      MP3 32.08% 32.08% 0.00% AdTs
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343

      2$ is a little better lead on the flop. I´m not sure if I bet turn. Betting turn would build the pot and most of the times you can´t go 3 street for value, so I would prefer c/c turn and c/c river.

      I would likely b/f river 6$, once you check and he shoves, fold seems a little better option, since I´m not sure he would shove his missed draws and mostly he is doing that for value

      best regards,