[NL2-NL10] [SH] River decision from test

    • GreenPiece
      GreenPiece
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2010 Posts: 5,962
      MP ($100.00) (18/11/1.8/24/555) [VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/Hands]
      BU ($100.00) (50/22/2.5/27/611) [VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/Hands]

      Preflop: Hero is BB with K :spade: , Q :diamond:
      1 fold, MP calls $1.00, 1 fold, BU calls $1.00, 1 fold, Hero raises to $6.00, MP calls $6.00, 1 fold

      Flop: ($13.50) 2 :heart: , 7 :club: , J :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $10.00, MP calls $10.00

      Turn: ($33.50) T :spade: (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP checks

      River: ($33.50) K :heart: (2 players)
      Hero ?
  • 3 replies
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Hello,

      I'd rather bet there.

      I don't think he checks better hands on the turn, and I don't expect him to bet the river with a busted draw but he might decide to go for a check/call with something like QJ.

      Best,
      Plamen
    • GreenPiece
      GreenPiece
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2010 Posts: 5,962
      If we bet vs QJ (what worse hand else can we find here to call us) then he should have KJ also. Plus we should give a chance he slowplayed some strong hand (let's take 3 combos of set):

      Board: 2:heart: 7:club: J:club:  T:spade:  K:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      SB     50.00%  50.00%   0.00% { 22, KJs, QJs, KJo, QJo }
      BB     50.00%  50.00%   0.00% { KsQd }


      But would he limp KJo & QJo?

      Board: 2:heart: 7:club: J:club:  T:spade:  K:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      SB     66.67%  66.67%   0.00% { 22, KJs, QJs }
      BB     33.33%  33.33%   0.00% { KsQd }


      And if there are no slowplays:

      Board: 2:heart: 7:club: J:club:  T:spade:  K:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      SB     33.33%  33.33%   0.00% { KJs, QJs }
      BB     66.67%  66.67%   0.00% { KsQd }


      But with his somewhat low WTS he can find a reason not to call with QJ here I think... We can make it 1\2 pot to keep him probably... The key aspect for this bet is he would bet stronger hands on the turn, tight?
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Yeah, he is probably going to bet his stronger hands on the turn so when he checks back I think his range mostly consists weak made hands that he might be inclined to bluff catch with, and due to his loose passive tendencies preflop, he is much likely to have hands like T9/J9 etc.