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[NL2-NL10] Not your typical NL2: Set vs flush draw

    • Termi8r
      Joined: 04.02.2008 Posts: 408
      I played this hand last night on the NL2 warmup table with some members of pokerstrategy. I knew that they will bet the draws and that I'm ahead. Planning to do the check/raise all-in but they went in anyway. What do you think of this play? Even if they hit I still have outs for the fullhouse.

      Known players:

      0.01/0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.58 by

      Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 3:diamond: , 3:heart:
      Hero calls $0.02, MP1 calls $0.02, MP2 raises to $0.10, 2 folds, BU raises to $0.38, SB folds, BB calls $0.36, Hero calls $0.36, MP1 calls $0.36, MP2 folds.

      Flop: ($1.63) Q:club: , 3:club: , K:heart: (4 players)
      BB checks, Hero checks, MP1 bets $0.50, BU raises to $8.54 (All-In), BB raises to $4.62 (All-In), Hero raises to $15.69 (All-In), MP1 folds, Hero gets uncalled bet back..

      Final Pot: $23.83
  • 4 replies
    • Marky84
      Joined: 11.07.2007 Posts: 186
      you possibly could be up against KK/QQ here, so it's not that sure if you actually are ahead :D anyways, i would never fold a flopped set - at least not intentionally - so getting the money in as long as you (might think you) are ahead is the best thing to do imo

      nice stack btw :)
    • Termi8r
      Joined: 04.02.2008 Posts: 408
      If you look at the percentage of hands these guys play then it s very unlikely that they have that, they would hve been all-in preflop, imo.
    • srohack
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 1,908
      even being this deep i am not folding a set at nl2 and i think we are ahead a good percentage of the time
    • Faye6891
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      Hi Termi8r,

      I don't like calling the hand PF, you got good implied odds, but you're not closing the action, MP1 or MP2 could still put another raise in there and you would have to fold your hand after donating some money to the pot, or... IMO, even worse, you would end up forced to call another bet since the pot would be huge and all the other players are quite deep.

      As played, the flop is fine, on NL2 I'm never folding this. And these guys are so lose that I think they could be pushing very wide here, it's possible someone is holding KK or QQ though, let's look at some numbers from equilator.

      Hero: 3h3d
      Equity: 40.045%

      BU: QQ+, AcKc, KQ
      Equity: 22.537%

      BB: QQ-KK, KQ, JcTc
      Equity: 37.418%

      IMO these ranges are a little bit tight, but it's enough to show that you got plenty of equity to make this call.