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[NL2-NL10] nl10 sh TT backraise

    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,378
      $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
      PokerStars
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($10.44) 104bb
      UTG+1 ($12.02) 120bb
      DrDunne (CO) ($22.18) 222bb
      BTN ($10.29) 103bb
      SB ($6.15) 62bb
      BB ($10) 100bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) DrDunne is CO 10:diamond: 10:club:
      UTG raises to $0.30, 1 fold, DrDunne calls $0.30, BTN raises to $1.35, 2 folds, UTG folds, DrDunne goes all-in $22.18

      UTG seems quite ABC over a small sample, BU has been quite active and has been 3betting me a few times over 100 hands so not much of a sample with that either but it definitely stood out to me. his stats are 24/20 and ~12% 3bet so far. i decided to backraise all in because i think this is a great spot for him to squeeze, so i was pretty happy that i'd have some decent FE and i also won't be completely dead against his range.... i hope you don't mind taking a look at this.

      i really suck when it comes to squeezing, so if i can't find a decent range for myself in this situation then i'm sure the following range for villain might not be very good... but assuming this total range:
      JJ+, A9s+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo [8.14%]

      i think he'll squeeze JJ+ and AQ+ for pure value and the rest as semi-bluffs with blockers. this is how i'd approach the situation but maybe it's not right. anyway....

      if he decides i'm spazzing out and calls me with JJ+ and AQ+ [4.22%], that means my FE = 1 - (4.22 / 8.14) = 48%

      against this continuing range i have 41% pot equity (PE), and when he only continues with this range i have 48% fold equity (FE). so here is my workings on the EV of the backraise... i hope it's right.

      EV = [FE * pot + (1-FE) * PE * pot_after_all_bets] - investment
      EV = [.48 * 120.9 + (1- .48) * .41 * 210.3] - 99.9
      EV = +2.96796bb

      ty

      [edit] i just wanna clarify the bolded part of the formula as well: do we include the pot as it is after my shove? which is 21bb + my shove of 99.9bb which leaves us with the 120.9bb... or do we just include the pot before my shove in which case this becomes very -EV :D
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi DrDunne,

      That's a pretty large squeeze by BTN so I don't mind your shove.

      There are two things you can do here. The calculation you did but also a calculation to see how much FE you would need assuming a calling range to your shove.

      You are risking $9.99 to win the pot of $2.1.

      Do you know how to calculate the FE required?

      I'd recommend doing it versus a range of QQ+, AK then a range that's a bit wider and include JJ/AQs.

      As far as your last question goes, I'll come back with another one :)

      If you win the pot ~50 the time outright and then win it 40% of the time when you go broke, should you bet +EV or -EV (that should also answer your other question)?
    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,378
      well.... i think the formula for required equity is: investment / (pot+investment) so in this case our required equity should be ~82%. from a total range of JJ+, A9s+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo [8.14%], if he only continues QQ+ and AK [2.56%] then our FE is 1 - (2.56 / 8.14) = 68.5% which is massive. but still unprofitable if we go just by the required FE...

      about your question (i'm such a maths fish!) it should be break even if we win 50% outright i think, and we lose if we only have 40% equity when called so it looks like it will be -EV.... this is hurting my head :D
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by DrDunne
      well.... i think the formula for required equity is: investment / (pot+investment) so in this case our required equity should be ~82%. from a total range of JJ+, A9s+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo [8.14%], if he only continues QQ+ and AK [2.56%] then our FE is 1 - (2.56 / 8.14) = 68.5% which is massive. but still unprofitable if we go just by the required FE...

      about your question (i'm such a maths fish!) it should be break even if we win 50% outright i think, and we lose if we only have 40% equity when called so it looks like it will be -EV.... this is hurting my head :D
      I'll give you an example for FE and you can do another one after.

      Against QQ, KK, AA, AK we have 36.41% equity (thus we lose 63.59% of the time). We won't take rake into account for the sake of the example.

      Assuming 0 FE we begin to calculate:

      When we go all in and win:
      0.3641 * 110.1 = 40.09 (pot + his remaining money)

      When we go all in and lose:
      0.6359 * 99.9 = 63.53 (our investment)

      Net worth = 40.09 - 63.53 = -23.44

      FE needed: 23.44 / (23.44 + 21) = 52.75 % FE needed

      So what conclusions can you draw from this?