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[NL2-NL10] Full House on river - paired flop

    • tinetotRNMD
      Joined: 22.01.2008 Posts: 39
      €0.05/€0.10 No Limit Holdem
      5 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by
      BB is 53/6/5,1 - 455hands Agg: 0,9 | River Agg% = 21 WTSD: 37 --------------------------------- I think raise river is not +EV.

      UTG Player3 (€14.59) 146bb
      CO Player9 (€2.60) 26bb
      BTN hubabuba (€9.95) 100bb
      SB Player1 (€29.54) 295bb
      BB Player2 (€5.31) 53bb

      Pre-Flop: (€0.15, 5 players) hubabuba is BTN J:spade: J:heart:
      2 folds, hubabuba raises to €0.30, 1 fold, Player2 calls €0.20

      Flop: K:heart: K:spade: 9:heart: (€0.65, 2 players)
      Player2 checks, hubabuba bets €0.40, Player2 calls €0.40

      Turn: A:club: (€1.45, 2 players)
      Player2 checks, hubabuba checks

      River: J:diamond: (€1.45, 2 players)
      Player2 checks, hubabuba bets €0.97, Player2 raises to €3.23, hubabuba raises to €5.49, Player2 calls €1.38

      Final Pot: €10.67
      Player2 shows
      K:diamond: 9:club:
      hubabuba shows
      J:spade: J:heart:

      Player2 wins €9.96 (net +€4.65)

      hubabuba collects €1.76 (net -€4.43)
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi tinetotRNMD,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: You have a big sample on villain is he is really passive so for him to go for a big ck/raise on the river he needs to have a pretty strong hand (or a bluff as his range is polarized). But given how he plays so far I doubt he has many bluffs and we do not beat K9, AK, KJ which are all part of his range. The only hand we beat is 99 which is also part of his range but only 3 combos.

      So I think that even calling is close and it may be a cry/fold.