[NL2-NL10] NL16SH 66 call CO vs MP

    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
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      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Poker Stars $16.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
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      BTN: $16.64
      SB: $40.34
      BB: $15.28
      UTG: $16.00
      Hero (CO): $36.32

      Pre Flop: ($0.24) Hero is CO with 6 :diamond: 6 :club:
      UTG raises to $0.48, Hero calls $0.48, BTN calls $0.48, SB calls $0.40, BB calls $0.32

      Flop: ($2.40) Q :diamond: 6 :heart: K :spade: (5 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $1.21, Hero calls $1.21, BTN folds, SB folds, BB folds

      Turn: ($4.82) 2 :spade: (2 players)
      UTG bets $2.94, Hero calls $2.94

      River: ($10.70) A :spade: (2 players)
      UTG bets $11.37, Hero folds


      Villain is 23/16 on 1.3k hands. 53% cbet, 4/5 double barrel 30% aggresion more or less on each street.

      He snapshoved river.

      I could be convinced that a raise turn is better than a call (as long as the argument is about maxEV not 'making my life on river easier'). I thought about it for a while.
  • 8 replies
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
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      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      flop - i could think of a raise on the flop multiway since i expect a fish to be calling Kx and possibly Qx and straight draws and want value imediately.

      turn as played i wouldnt raise the turn since its so dry, and i think if hes calling a raise on the turn hes usually betting or check/calling the river and that is more likely to happen.

      river - as played im not folding the river, he could bet worse hands this way like 2p, and of course better like straight and flush and better sets but 2p is more likely.

      cgf
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
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      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      ahhhhh, so that makes AK way more likely. I didn't think he would INSTA-jam it like this on river since it completes t3h draws so I weighted his range differently in my head.

      Maybe I shouldn't have read this much into his timing?
    • yougotfelted51
      yougotfelted51
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      Joined: 04.02.2010 Posts: 1,276
      i would think that villain with a hand like JT( if he has it utg, not sure his opening %) or flushes (once again how many will villain have utg?) would at least take some time before betting, to determine what to bet and what to get value against.

      im not sure about villain's bet sizing though throughout the hand, it gets bigger street by street, so a flush could be possible (QJss).

      however, due to spr, it looks like villain screwed up with a hand like AQ/AK a decent amount of the time.

      i would be interested to know villain's opening stats from UTG (effectively mp)
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
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      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      I would think the A improved his range. Of course he could have JT and flush but I think a good amount of the time he has AQ AK. We need to be right about 55% on the time and I think we have more than that.
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
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      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      I recall checking his open range at the time and seeing 18% in EP, So its not like I can eliminate JTs from his range.

      Seems like I screwed up reading his timing on river :(
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
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      how often does he have JT compared to the times he has AK or AQ?
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
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      Originally posted by cutegoldfish
      how often does he have JT compared to the times he has AK or AQ?
      I can only think how to do this by examining hand combos;

      I might guess at a couple of different starting handranges:

      1) 44+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo

      2) 44+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, ATo+, KQo


      That is of course if the 18% number I recall is in some way accurate....

      perhaps the way the hand plays out his range reduces to something like:

      QQ+, ATs+, KJs+, JTs, AKo, KQo, with perhaps some QJs of spades and QTs spades.

      combos- 3 of QQ, 3 of KK, 4 of JTs, 3 of AA, up to 9 of AK, perhaps 2 or 4 combos of AQ, and perhaps 2 other flushes.

      we lose to up to 15 combos.

      we beat up to 13 combos of AQ and AK. if you include KQ that would be 22 we beat.


      That leads to a clear call if you ignore the timing tell, I made the error of thinking the insta-shove may mean I have to cut almost all that AQ and AK out of his range.
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
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      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      Yea that's right, you don't have the time to do all these calculations on the table but to be right 40% of the time with a set on a high ccard connected board you usually have the odds to call unless the obvious flushcompleted.