[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH Speed ATs Restealing BTN vs SB

    • Alleen86
      Alleen86
      Platinum
      Joined: 27.05.2010 Posts: 4,704
      IPoker, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BB: $4.90 (49 bb)
      UTG: $10 (100 bb)
      MP: $6.24 (62.4 bb)
      CO: $22.28 (222.8 bb)
      BTN: $10.65 (106.5 bb)
      Hero (SB): $9.90 (99 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with T A
      3 folds, BTN raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $1, BB folds, BTN calls $0.70

      Flop: ($2.10) 3 6 4 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.20, BTN calls $1.20

      Turn: ($4.50) J (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN checks

      River: ($4.50) J (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $4, Hero folds

      Hello!

      Should I cbet the Turn?

      BTN: 23/20/67/79/21/80/20/7,7/437 (VPIP/PFR/STfromBTN/Fv3B/Cv3B/FvFlopCB/CvFlopCB/AF/H)
  • 4 replies
    • Alan883
      Alan883
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.12.2008 Posts: 1,941
      The problem here is that his 3bet calling range is quite strong and i don't know if we have many fold equity here. What about just calling on SB vs his wide open raising range from BTN and keep his worse hands in play?
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Hello,

      I would like to ask you guys some questions about this one:
      - Why do we want to 3bet this hand preflop - what hands are we expecting to call us - can you elaborate BU's range for calling here? (Of course it would be good to know something about BB as well since this could affect our decision dramatically, so stats on BB will be nice)
      - When we go for cbetting this flop what is exactly our plan and why do we cbet?

      Best,
      Plamen
    • Alleen86
      Alleen86
      Platinum
      Joined: 27.05.2010 Posts: 4,704
      Originally posted by kymupa
      Hello,

      I would like to ask you guys some questions about this one:
      - Why do we want to 3bet this hand preflop - what hands are we expecting to call us - can you elaborate BU's range for calling here? (Of course it would be good to know something about BB as well since this could affect our decision dramatically, so stats on BB will be nice)
      - When we go for cbetting this flop what is exactly our plan and why do we cbet?

      Best,
      Plamen
      I would try to answer. AT is not that easy to play postflop oop, even suited, and we mostly 3bet this hand for fold equity. Since he steals alot and folds alot to 3-bets, it should be fine. In 79% of cases we win 4,5 bb's and in 21% of cases we lose 9 bb's (sure this is not exactly the case because of various scenarious that may occur after our 3-bet and on further streets, but to simplify). So, in average, we win 1,67 bb's by 3-beting there.

      He steals 67% of buttons and calls 21% of those to 3-bet. So, I think his calling range is also wide. It should be around 14%. That means 77+, A9s+, ATo+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+, QJo. I believe he would 4-bet QQ+..

      This flop doesn't hit his nor our range, but if we cbet there, I think he won't fold any of his 3b calling range.. If an overcard hits on the turn, it would be in his range so he probably won't fold to turn cbet either.

      All in all, I think that check/fold with no backdor equity is the best move there on the flop..

      BB is probably quite aggressive with 67/67 over 6 hands.. So, the 3bet is definitelly better than a call.

      *Could any of my assumtions be correct there? :f_p:
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Hey,

      Sorry for the late answer here.

      Now to the topic:

      Basically, given your assumptions you are right - villain is going to fold decent amount of the times to 3bet, also he is folding a lot against cbets, so I think that 3betting and then cbetting most of the flops is going to show profit.

      The reason I asked the question is because the hand is rather good and it doesn't play too hard OOP (of course any stats on his cbet flop/turn is going to be good). So I think this hand may also be called, and I would actually prefer this in this spot.

      If it was ATo it's a 3bet.

      When we 3betted preflop, I would always cbet this flop as villain is quite honest postflop and I don't expect him to call with A high here and we do have some turn cards to bet on as well.

      As played, I think the J is a rather borderline card to bet here and I wouldn't mind check/folding here.