[NL20-NL50] NL50 9max: FD vs strong bets from opponent

    • Kruppe
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,145
      Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
      LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

      SB: $50.35
      BB: $49.45
      UTG: $31.05
      UTG+1: $47.25
      MP: $51
      Kruppe (CO): $50
      BTN: $30.55

      Pre-Flop: 8:diamond: K:diamond: dealt to Kruppe (CO)
      3 folds, Kruppe raises to $2, 2 folds, BB calls $1.50

      Flop: ($4.25) 6:heart: 9:diamond: 3:diamond: (2 Players)
      BB checks, Kruppe bets $3, BB raises to $6, Kruppe calls $3

      Turn: ($16.25) 6:heart: 9:diamond: 3:diamond: [ J:heart: ] (2 Players)
      BB bets $12, Kruppe calls $12

      River: ($40.25) 6:heart: 9:diamond: 3:diamond: J:heart: [ 7:diamond: ] (2 Players)
      BB bets $29.45 and is All-In, Kruppe calls $29.45

      If I think he often has a set, should I fold turn?
  • 2 replies
    • cindy1985
      Joined: 13.11.2007 Posts: 358
      Suppose he has a set and you can stack him if you hit. You have 16% equity in this case. You have to pay 12 to win his remaining stack (30) and the current pot (roughly another 30). You Ev is:

      EV=0.16*(30+30)-0.84*12 = -0.5 BB

      so yes, I would definitely fold the turn
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Ty cindy for analyze.
      @ Kruppe. You think that he often has set, but you can´t be 100% sure. That ś why I´d call turn, since he could take that line with TT or maybe some combo draw and your K outs might also be good.
      I´d call turn, since you´re ip and if you hit your flush you´ll stack him (unless board pairs, then you loose all your stack against set:) )