[NL20-NL50] NL50 9max: FD vs strong bets from opponent

• Black
Joined: 20.02.2008
Full Tilt Poker, \$0.25/\$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: \$50.35
BB: \$49.45
UTG: \$31.05
UTG+1: \$47.25
MP: \$51
Kruppe (CO): \$50
BTN: \$30.55

Pre-Flop: 8 K dealt to Kruppe (CO)
3 folds, Kruppe raises to \$2, 2 folds, BB calls \$1.50

Flop: (\$4.25) 6 9 3 (2 Players)
BB checks, Kruppe bets \$3, BB raises to \$6, Kruppe calls \$3

Turn: (\$16.25) 6 9 3 [ J ] (2 Players)
BB bets \$12, Kruppe calls \$12

River: (\$40.25) 6 9 3 J [ 7 ] (2 Players)
BB bets \$29.45 and is All-In, Kruppe calls \$29.45

If I think he often has a set, should I fold turn?
• 2 replies
• Bronze
Joined: 13.11.2007
Suppose he has a set and you can stack him if you hit. You have 16% equity in this case. You have to pay 12 to win his remaining stack (30) and the current pot (roughly another 30). You Ev is:

EV=0.16*(30+30)-0.84*12 = -0.5 BB

so yes, I would definitely fold the turn
• Bronze
Joined: 02.02.2007
Ty cindy for analyze.
@ Kruppe. You think that he often has set, but you can´t be 100% sure. That ś why I´d call turn, since he could take that line with TT or maybe some combo draw and your K outs might also be good.
I´d call turn, since you´re ip and if you hit your flush you´ll stack him (unless board pairs, then you loose all your stack against set )